MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 23rd - LAA @ HOU
LA Angels at Houston – 8:10 PM ET
Suarez has some fantasy appeal when he’s pitching at home in a good matchup, but that’s not the case tonight. He has to face the Astros in Houston. Their lineup is loaded with firepower from both sides of the plate and Suarez has allowed a .200+ ISO to both lefties and righties. There is far more risk than upside for Suarez tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Suarez in all formats.
Greinke doesn’t have as high of a strikeout rate as many pitchers in this slate, but he rarely walks batters and he pitches deep into games. His price point on FanDuel ($10,300) is a bit too high for my liking, but he’s firmly in play on DraftKings ($8,800). The Angels aren’t thought of as an exploitable matchup, but their lineup isn’t nearly as intimidating as it was earlier in the year. Their projected lineup has a combined xwOBA of only .317 with an average k-rate of 26% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: The Angels are a better matchup than most realize and Greinke is a huge favorite pitching at home. He’s viable in all formats on DraftKings.
Batter Grind Down
Zack Greinke is not a pitcher that I like to target hitters against. He has an average strikeout rate, a low walk rate, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA and under a .155 ISO. Mike Trout (.475 xwOBA) and Shohei Ohtani (.389 xwOBA) have the talent to succeed in any matchup, but they are tournament fliers at best in tonight’s 13-game slate.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
The Astros are very expensive tonight, which should help keep ownership at a reasonable level. From a raw projection standpoint, they are the top offense of the slate. Jose Suarez hasn’t been great against lefties, but has really struggled against righties — .360 xwOBA, .278 ISO, and a 3.28 HR/9. He’s also struggled to hold base runners, which makes the three big right-handed batters in this lineup even more appealing. George Springer (.409 xwOBA), Jose Altuve (.450 xwOBA), and Alex Bregman (.371 xwOBA) are three of the best plays in the entire slate.
Stackability – BLUE