MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 23rd - PHI @ MIA
Philadelphia at Miami – 7:10 PM ET
Velasquez will be the chalky SP2 play tonight, but for good reason. He has a 25% strikeout rate on the season and he gets to face the Marlins in Miami. His big weakness has been power and that’s largely negated by this ballpark. He put up 25 fantasy points (DK scoring) the last time he faced the Marlins and could easily put up a similar performance this time around. Miami’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .262 with an average k-rate of 29% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Velasquez will be popular, but he’s an elite SP2 for both cash games and tournaments.
Noesi has struggled in his three major league starts this season. He hasn’t been great at the Triple-A level either, posting a 5.33 FIP with a strikeout rate of 26%. He’s a large underdog and tonight’s game against the Phillies has a total of 9.0 runs (which is rare for this ballpark). This isn’t a terrible matchup, but the Phillies have a lot more to play for than the Marlins at this point of the season.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Noesi in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
The Phillies have a relatively high implied run total given the fact that they are playing in Miami. Hector Noesi has struggled with walks at the major league level and the Phillies’ offense has been firing on all cylinders recently. I don’t love the full stack in this ballpark, but we can certainly look to capture Philly’s upside through one-offs and mini stacks. Rhys Hoskins (.327 xwOBA), Bryce Harper (.384 xwOBA), J.T. Realmuto (.343 xwOBA), and Corey Dickerson (.345 xwOBA) all have power against right-handed pitching.
Stackability – YELLOW
The ultimate leverage move tonight in tournaments would be to stack the Marlins. I will not be joining you on that quest, but Vince Velasquez is going to be very popular on multi-pitcher sites. The issue is that the Marlins don’t have much power to speak of and that this ballpark suppresses power. Isan Diaz and Neil Walker are decent value plays for tournaments, but this is an easy offense to avoid in both cash games and tournaments.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE