MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 12th - ARI @ STL
Arizona at St. Louis – 8:15 PM ET
Ray has one of the highest strikeout rates of any pitcher taking the mound tonight, but he also has one of the highest walk rates. He typically doesn’t pitch deep into games, but we are willing to live with it given his strikeout upside and cheap price point. The Cardinals have a right-handed heavy lineup, but he gets to face them in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. It doesn’t hurt that the projected lineup for St. Louis has an average k-rate of 25% against southpaws.
Quick Breakdown: If we strictly look at strikeouts/salary, Ray is one of the better values of the slate. He’s one of a handful of mid-range options on my radar.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Adam Wainwright has been scratched. Daniel Ponce de Leon has been recalled and is starting.
Wainwright has been decent at home over the last few seasons and comes into tonight’s game in solid form. In his two starts before the break, he posted a 3.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% and a ground ball rate of 53%. For him to deserve consideration, he needs to be facing a right-handed heavy opponent. It looks like the Diamondbacks will roll out five lefties, but I’ll keep an eye on their lineup throughout the day.
Quick Breakdown: I doubt I’ll end up with any Wainwright shares tonight, but he’s viable if the Diamondbacks roll out a right-handed heavy lineup.
Batter Grind Down
The Diamondbacks are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and we have no shortage of options tonight. They are a tough sell against Adam Wainwright. If you feel obligated to play some Arizona hitters, give the edge to those that bat from the left side. On the season, Wainwright has allowed a .370 xwOBA and a .241 ISO to lefties.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
Robbie Ray allows a lot of baserunners and a decent amount of hard contact, but he’s not a pitcher that I like to target hitters against. He owns an elite strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA this season. However, Jose Martinez (.487 xwOBA) and Paul Goldschmidt (.515 xwOBA) are two of the best hitters in baseball against southpaws and they are priced way down across the industry.
Secondary Plays – Paul DeJong, Tyler O’Neill
Stackability – ORANGE