MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 12th - ATL @ SDP

Atlanta at San Diego – 10:10 PM ET

The final game of the night features two intriguing pitching options. Keuchel hasn’t shown much upside this season, posting a strikeout rate of only 11%. However, he has an elite ground ball rate and he sees a boost in strikeouts in a matchup against the Padres. San Diego’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .290 with a strikeout rate of 28% against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: It feels gross spending this much on a pitcher with an 11% k-rate, but Keuchel is worth a look given the matchup and ballpark.

Lamet threw 80 pitches in his first start in two years, striking out seven batters against the Dodgers. He has a massive ceiling, and a few of the sites have wasted no time pricing him up. However, he’s still only $5,600 on FanDuel. A matchup against the Braves is far from ideal, and he will likely still be on a pitch count, but he’s firmly in play for tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: There are better point per dollar options on DraftKings, but Lamet is viable in tournaments on FanDuel.

Batter Grind Down

The Braves are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they are facing a pitcher with an elite strikeout rate in Dinelson Lamet. You can always make a case to play Ronald Acuna or Freddie Freeman in tournaments, but they are deep fliers at best in a slate this size.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysRonald Acuna (GPP), Freddie Freeman (GPP)


We can look at this matchup in two ways — Dallas Keuchel could see a boost in a high-strikeout matchup, or the Padres could see a boost against a low-strikeout pitcher. The sample size is small, but Keuchel has allowed a .344 xwOBA to righties this season. Fernando Tatis (.387 xwOBA), Manny Machado (.419 xwOBA), and Hunter Renfroe (.422 xwOBA) have all mashed lefties throughout their respective careers.

Elite PlaysFernando Tatis (GPP), Manny Machado (GPP), Hunter Renfroe (GPP)

Secondary PlaysFernando Tatis (Cash), Manny Machado (Cash), Hunter Renfroe (Cash), Franmil Reyes (GPP)


About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.


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