MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 12th - ATL @ SDP
Atlanta at San Diego – 10:10 PM ET
The final game of the night features two intriguing pitching options. Keuchel hasn’t shown much upside this season, posting a strikeout rate of only 11%. However, he has an elite ground ball rate and he sees a boost in strikeouts in a matchup against the Padres. San Diego’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .290 with a strikeout rate of 28% against southpaws.
Quick Breakdown: It feels gross spending this much on a pitcher with an 11% k-rate, but Keuchel is worth a look given the matchup and ballpark.
Lamet threw 80 pitches in his first start in two years, striking out seven batters against the Dodgers. He has a massive ceiling, and a few of the sites have wasted no time pricing him up. However, he’s still only $5,600 on FanDuel. A matchup against the Braves is far from ideal, and he will likely still be on a pitch count, but he’s firmly in play for tournaments.
Quick Breakdown: There are better point per dollar options on DraftKings, but Lamet is viable in tournaments on FanDuel.
Batter Grind Down
The Braves are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they are facing a pitcher with an elite strikeout rate in Dinelson Lamet. You can always make a case to play Ronald Acuna or Freddie Freeman in tournaments, but they are deep fliers at best in a slate this size.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
We can look at this matchup in two ways — Dallas Keuchel could see a boost in a high-strikeout matchup, or the Padres could see a boost against a low-strikeout pitcher. The sample size is small, but Keuchel has allowed a .344 xwOBA to righties this season. Fernando Tatis (.387 xwOBA), Manny Machado (.419 xwOBA), and Hunter Renfroe (.422 xwOBA) have all mashed lefties throughout their respective careers.
Stackability – YELLOW