MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 12th - LAD @ BOS
LA Dodgers at Boston – 7:10 PM ET
The Dodgers travel across the country to take on the Red Sox in what should be a fun series. The only positive that I see for the Dodgers’ starters is that they won’t have to worry about getting pinch hit for. However, that’s not enough to overcome a matchup against Boston in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. Maeda has talent, but this game features a total of 10.5 runs. I’ll trust the betting markets in this one.
Quick Breakdown: Maeda is dirt cheap on FanDuel, but he’s an easy fade in this matchup and ballpark.
Rodriguez is typically on my radar when he’s pitching at home. He’s typically a large favorite, and he has solid home splits throughout his career. His numbers as a whole are solid this season, but his recent form is troublesome. In his last three starts, he has a SIERA over 5.00 with a strikeout rate of only 19%. To make matters worse, he’s facing a Dodgers lineup that owns an average xwOBA of .359 and an average ISO of .206 against southpaws.
Quick Breakdown: E-Rod is cheap and has some strikeout upside here, but there are better options at SP2 tonight.
Batter Grind Down
The Dodgers see a positive park shift playing in Fenway, and they get to use the DH in this series. Their matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez doesn’t look great on paper, but the positives outweigh the negatives. Los Angeles is hoping to have A.J. Pollock back, which would be a significant boost to their lineup. There aren’t any hitters that really stand out as must plays, but there are some intriguing tournament targets.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – YELLOW
The Red Sox will garner little ownership tonight in a matchup against Kenta Maeda, even though they are playing at home and have a relatively high implied run total. On the season, Maeda has a 24% strikeout rate and has held right-handed hitters to a .214 xwOBA. In mass multi-entry, I wouldn’t rule out a full Red Sox stack at low ownership. For cash games and small field tournaments, we should only be interested in the lefties. Rafael Devers (.386 xwOBA) stands out as an excellent one-off target.
Elite Plays – Rafael Devers (GPP)
Stackability – YELLOW