MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 12th - NYM @ MIA

NY Mets at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Vargas has managed to escape the god of regression, but not for long. Eventually, his ERA will catch up to his SIERA (4.98). He has an average k-rate, a high walk rate, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. Many will play him tonight because streaming pitchers against Miami has been profitable this season, but I will not be joining on the expedition. The Marlins actually have some decent right-handed hitters in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: The matchup and ERA look good, but I will continue to argue that Vargas is overpriced for his talent level.

Of the two pitchers taking the mound in this game, Smith offers more fantasy appeal. He has pitched well in 13 starts this season, posting a 3.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a walk rate of 7%. He’s been tough on righties, which should really help quiet the Mets. Their three best hitters against southpaws all bat from the right side of the plate. Smith is affordable, he has upside, and he’s pitching at home in a good ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Smith is an elite SP2 in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

With so much interest in Caleb Smith, I will naturally be underweight on the Mets’ offense. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Smith has held right-handed hitters to a .296 xwOBA this season. He has struggled against lefties, but do we really want to target lefty/lefty matchups in a pitcher-friendly ballpark in a 13-game slate?

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysPete Alonso (GPP)


The Marlins have been a nice source of value in the first half of the season. They don’t play in the best ballpark or have the most talent offensively, but we have to be price-sensitive when it comes to DFS. Jason Vargas has allowed a .322 xwOBA and a .163 ISO to right-handed hitters this season. Miguel Rojas, Cesar Puello (.386 xwOBA), and Starlin Castro (.370 xwOBA) all bat from the right side and are all cheap across the industry.

Elite PlaysStarlin Castro

Secondary PlaysMiguel Rojas, Cesar Puello, Brian Anderson (FD), Jorge Alfaro (DK)


About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.


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