MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 12th - SFG @ MIL
San Francisco at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM ET
We have a battle of the Andersons tonight in Milwaukee. Even though Shaun is basically free on DraftKings ($4,800), he’s a tough sell in any format. In 10 starts this season, he owns a 5.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13%. He’s pitching on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark and he’s facing the Brewers, whose projected lineup has an average ISO of .206 against righties.
Quick Breakdown: Anderson is an easy fade in all formats.
We can cross one Anderson off our list of potential targets, but the other one (Chase) is interesting. In 12 starts this season, he owns a 4.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. Those numbers are solid for a pitcher at his price point, and they look even better in a matchup against the Giants, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .324 with a strikeout rate of 24% against right-handed pitching. The icing on the cake is that Anderson has reverse splits and that the Giants have a left-handed heavy lineup.
Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, Anderson is one of the best plays at pitcher tonight.
Batter Grind Down
The Giants see a positive park shift playing in Milwaukee, but they still own one of the worst offenses in baseball. As noted above, Chase Anderson has some serious reverse splits, allowing a .380 xwOBA and a .239 ISO to right-handed hitters this season. Buster Posey (.344 xwOBA) and Evan Longoria (.354 xwOBA) are the top targets from a splits perspective, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
The Brewers have underwhelmed at the plate over the last few weeks, but we have no choice but to like them tonight at home against Shaun Anderson. He has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball and has allowed a .387 xwOBA to lefties and a .340 xwOBA to righties this season. The Brewers get to face him at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Yasmani Grandal (.352 xwOBA), Christian Yelich (.440 xwOBA), and Mike Moustakas (.343 xwOBA) are all elite plays at their respective positions. You can complete the stack with the likes of Ryan Braun, Eric Thames, and Keston Hiura.
Stackability – BLUE