MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 12th - TBR @ BAL
Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
Chirinos has been a serviceable starter this season, posting a 4.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 6%. The reason to like him tonight isn’t necessarily his talent- it’s his matchup against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .318 with a strikeout rate of 24% against right-handed pitching. The fact that he’s only a small favorite in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs is a little worrisome, but we have to like his upside at this price point.
Quick Breakdown: Chirinos is a viable SP2 in all formats.
Bundy is the ultimate boom or bust pitcher when it comes to DFS. He can rack up strikeouts, but he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of home runs. He’s typically on my radar in tournaments because it’s hard to find pitchers in this price range with this much upside. The issue here is a matchup against the Rays, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .330 and an average ISO of .181 against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Bundy is viable as an SP2 in tournaments, but he always carries risk.
Batter Grind Down
The Rays see a positive park shift playing in Baltimore, which plays up right-handed power. They draw a boom or bust matchup against Dylan Bundy, who has allowed a .301 ISO and a 2.47 HR/9 to batters from the right side of the plate. This isn’t a spot where I want to stack the Rays, but Tommy Pham (.377 xwOBA) stands out as an elite one-off target. He has a high ground ball rate for a power hitter, so he sees a boost when facing fly-ball pitchers. Nate Lowe rates out as one of the best value plays of the slate, even though he bats from the left side.
Stackability – YELLOW
The Orioles have been an easy offense to avoid in large slates. They’ve had a few big outings this season, but still own one of the worst offenses in baseball. Yonny Chirinos has been tough on right-handed hitters, but has allowed a .351 xwOBA and a .164 ISO ISO to lefties. The one and only hitter on my radar here is Chance Sisco, who boasts a .403 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Elite Plays – Chance Sisco (DK)
Secondary Plays – Dwight Smith (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE