MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 12th - TBR @ BAL

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Chirinos has been a serviceable starter this season, posting a 4.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 6%. The reason to like him tonight isn’t necessarily his talent- it’s his matchup against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .318 with a strikeout rate of 24% against right-handed pitching. The fact that he’s only a small favorite in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs is a little worrisome, but we have to like his upside at this price point.

Quick Breakdown: Chirinos is a viable SP2 in all formats.

Bundy is the ultimate boom or bust pitcher when it comes to DFS. He can rack up strikeouts, but he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of home runs. He’s typically on my radar in tournaments because it’s hard to find pitchers in this price range with this much upside. The issue here is a matchup against the Rays, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .330 and an average ISO of .181 against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy is viable as an SP2 in tournaments, but he always carries risk.

Batter Grind Down

The Rays see a positive park shift playing in Baltimore, which plays up right-handed power. They draw a boom or bust matchup against Dylan Bundy, who has allowed a .301 ISO and a 2.47 HR/9 to batters from the right side of the plate. This isn’t a spot where I want to stack the Rays, but Tommy Pham (.377 xwOBA) stands out as an elite one-off target. He has a high ground ball rate for a power hitter, so he sees a boost when facing fly-ball pitchers. Nate Lowe rates out as one of the best value plays of the slate, even though he bats from the left side.

Elite PlaysTommy Pham, Nate Lowe

Secondary PlaysAustin Meadows, Yandy Diaz


The Orioles have been an easy offense to avoid in large slates. They’ve had a few big outings this season, but still own one of the worst offenses in baseball. Yonny Chirinos has been tough on right-handed hitters, but has allowed a .351 xwOBA and a .164 ISO ISO to lefties. The one and only hitter on my radar here is Chance Sisco, who boasts a .403 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Elite PlaysChance Sisco (DK)

Secondary PlaysDwight Smith (GPP)


About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.


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