MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 12th - TOR @ NYY
Toronto at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET
Note: The Grind Down video update will return on Monday, July 15th.
We kick off tonight’s 13-game main slate with the Blue Jays and Yankees. Sanchez has really struggled this season, and a matchup against New York is unlikely to help. In 19 starts, he owns a 5.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and a walk rate of 13%. He generates a lot of ground balls, but that’s not always a good thing when you aren’t getting strikeouts.
Quick Breakdown: Sanchez is an easy fade in all formats.
German doesn’t get enough credit for the season he’s having. In his 13 starts this season, he owns a 3.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and walk rate of 6%. The Blue Jays have plenty of young talent, but they strike out at a high rate against right-handed pitching. This game features a high total, but the Blue Jays don’t have that high of a team total. The issue for me isn’t the matchup- it’s German’s price. I don’t view him as an SP1 in this slate, and he’s overpriced on multi-pitcher sites.
Quick Breakdown: This is a good spot for German, but at this price point he’s only viable in tournaments.
Batter Grind Down
The Blue Jays are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark in a game with a high total, but they draw a difficult matchup against Domingo German. In addition to having a 26% strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. There is always the debate on what the Home Run Derby does to a player’s swing, but it’s hard not to like Vladimir Guerrero (.339 xwOBA). He is still underpriced across the industry.
Elite Plays – Vladimir Guerrero (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE
The Yankees stacks should be out in full force tonight. Aaron Sanchez has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and a high hard contact rate. On the season, he has allowed a .340+ xwOBA and a .150+ ISO to both left and right-handed hitters. The Yankees are big favorites and this game features a massive total. The best part is that the Yankees feel a little too cheap across the industry. The Yankees have six batters with at least a .350+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching — DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Edwin Encarnacion, and Gleyber Torres.
Stackability – BLUE