MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 19th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
San Diego at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET
We have a full 14-game slate on tap tonight with one early game on the schedule. With a 14 MPH wind blowing out to left field in Wrigley, this should be a fun one. You might want to get exposure to these offenses in the all-day slate and it’s a good spot for an all-hitter lineup for the showdown slate. Lauer has a strikeout rate of only 18% on the season and gives up a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters. This ballpark will play up right-handed power and the Cubs have a number of good righties in their lineup.
Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than upside for Lauer in this start. He can be avoided in the all-day and showdown slates.
Of the two pitchers in this game, Lester offers more fantasy appeal. He has plenty of experience pitching in Wrigley when the wind is blowing out and he still offers strikeout upside. I certainly wouldn’t look his way for the all-day slate, but he’s viable in showdown. He has a 23% strikeout rate on the season, he generates a decent number of ground balls, and he’s done a much better job of holding runners. There is still plenty of risk with all of the right-handed power in the Padres’ lineup, but often times it can be hard to replace a pitcher’s fantasy production in a single-game slate.
Quick Breakdown: Lester is far from a must play with the wind blowing out, but he’s viable in showdown.
Batter Grind Down
This game features a total of 12.5 runs and it continues to climb. We have a 14 MPH wind blowing out to left field, which turns Wrigley Field into one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. On the season, Jon Lester has allowed a .327 xwOBA, a .193 ISO, and a 1.63 HR/9 to batters from the right side of the plate. The Padres’ hitters are viable in both the all-day and the showdown slates. Fernando Tatis (.404 xwOBA), Manny Machado (.430 xwOBA), Hunter Renfroe (.411 xwOBA), and Franmil Reyes (.331 xwOBA) are all elite plays here. From a value standpoint, Francisco Mejia is only $4,800 on DraftKings.
Stackability – GREEN
The Cubs are a strong stack in the all-day slate and close to a must stack for showdown. Eric Lauer has allowed a .322 xwOBA and a 45% hard contact rate to batters from the right side of the plate this season. His strikeout rate is well below the league average and he doesn’t generate nearly as many ground balls against righties as he does against lefties. With the wind blowing out to left field, this is obviously a perfect spot for the right-handed hitters from Chicago. Albert Almora (cheap), Javier Baez (.401 xwOBA), Kris Bryant (.429 xwOBA), and Addison Russell (cheap) are all elite plays.
Stackability – BLUE