MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 15th

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.



Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.




NY Mets at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets Philadelphia
Noah Syndergaard Aaron Nola
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI -115 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.287 0.273 21.8% 0.31 21.4% 45.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.259 0.269 25.4% 0.81 26.7% 51.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.278 0.252 22.9% 0.84 27.7% 54.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.262 0.271 25.2% 0.93 26.2% 50.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Noah Syndergaard
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $10,000 Salary: $19,700
Salary Rank: 3 of 18 Salary Rank: 2 of 18 Salary Rank: 2 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 25 3.55 3.03 24.1% 6.1% 49.0% 21.9% 25.3% 97.4 13.6%
2019 3 2.98 4.74 27.8% 2.8% 57.4% 26.5% 26.5% 97.6 14.1%

I know this is a baseball article, but I have to hit on Tiger Woods winning The Masters yesterday. If you have followed any of my golf content, you know that I’m as big of a Tiger homer as you will find in the DFS industry. He’s obviously had his issues over the years, but this comeback was something that I’ve never seen in sports. He took as big of a fall as any superstar, both in terms of his image and his health. Many (including himself) didn’t think he’d be able to golf again, let alone win his 15th major. It was an incredible Sunday that I will remember forever. I got to watch my childhood hero win the best tournament in golf and I got to experience it with my own son. All the feels.

Now, let’s get into tonight’s nine-game MLB slate. We start with the Mets and Phillies in a game that features two elite pitchers on the mound. Syndergaard has given up some runs in his first three starts, but the peripheral statistics are all elite — 2.98 SIERA, 28% strikeout rate, 57% ground ball rate, and a 27% soft contact rate. The Phillies have a stacked lineup, but Syndergaard has the skill set to dominate in any matchup and in any ballpark. Based on early ownership projections, Syndergaard is going to have a fraction of the ownership as Trevor Bauer, even though the two have a similar ceiling.

Quick Breakdown: For cash games, I lean toward Bauer as my SP1 in this slate. Given the expected ownership discount, I lean toward Syndergaard over Bauer as my SP1 in GPPs.

Aaron Nola
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $9,600 Salary: $18,900
Salary Rank: 4 of 18 Salary Rank: 4 of 18 Salary Rank: 3 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 33 3.40 2.37 27.0% 7.0% 50.6% 25.1% 22.3% 92.4 12.4%
2019 3 5.00 6.46 20.0% 12.3% 54.5% 27.3% 27.3% 92.1 8.1%

Nola was sharp in his first two starts of the season, but struggled in back-to-back outings against the Nationals. His fastball velocity is fine and he’s still generating ground balls and soft contact at a high rate, so I’m not overly concerned moving forward. His ability to limit left-handed hitters is a plus against the Mets, who have four good lefties in their lineup. In total, the Mets’ projected lineup has a combined 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Both of the pitchers in this game are nice tournament pivots off of Bauer, but I slightly prefer Syndergaard over Nola.

Batter Grind Down

I know the new hitter tables will take some time getting used to, but they have all the same information as before, and they are readable on the mobile site. I’ve made two changes that I wanted to highlight quickly. First, I added the average xwOBA, ISO, and K% of each projected lineup to the implied run total chart at the top of the page. This will make it easier to spot favorable matchups for pitchers. And second, I added the team averages to the bottom of each team’s hitter chart.

Even though this game is being played in a hitter-friendly ballpark, it features a total of only 7.5 runs. We have two elite arms on the mound and when possible, I try to avoid targeting hitters in these matchups. Aaron Nola has an above-average strikeout rate, a high ground ball rate, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 xwOBA over the last two seasons. While the Mets have four good lefties in their projected lineup (Brandon Nimmo, Robinson Cano, Michael Conforto, and Jeff McNeil), they all have above-average ground ball rates against right-handed pitching.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

StackabilityRED

It’s absurd how good Noah Syndergaard is when he’s healthy. His average fastball velocity is around 98 MPH, he has a high strikeout rate, he has an elite ground ball rate, and he generates more soft contact than hard contact. Since the beginning of last season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 xwOBA. His one weakness is his inability to hold runners. I will be fading the Phillies’ offense completely, but Jean Segura would be my favorite play here if I had to choose one.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

StackabilityRED

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

    Notorious

    Interview after $100,000 Win

Comments

  • garb99

    So, no chance a more functional version of these tables come back?

  • LuckofDean

    Tigers comeback was definitely one of the greatest comebacks in all of sports but I still think Anderson Silva’s comeback against Chael Sonnen was the best comeback in sports. There is nothing like getting beat to a pulp but somehow still pulling out the win. Thanks for the info!!!

  • itzpest

    @Noto I know you’ve never tried it before but you put so much research into these games (you must have better insights than most) so why not throw up a couple ML baseball bets here and there that you feel good about similar to what you did for the NBA season? Would love to ride with you on your bets man, love the content regardless!

  • Notorious

    Lead RG Analyst

    • 62

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #53

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    • 2013 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @itzpest said...

    @Noto I know you’ve never tried it before but you put so much research into these games (you must have better insights than most) so why not throw up a couple ML baseball bets here and there that you feel good about similar to what you did for the NBA season? Would love to ride with you on your bets man, love the content regardless!

    Definitely going to start a betting section soon. Hopefully later this week!

  • RiskyBiscuits

    I cried when Tiger walked off 18 and hugged his son.

  • samsonite136

    Hey, I was wondering if it would be possible to also display the color-coded system of hitting statistics for each team. I found the color-coded data sheets, with all the various statistics easier to compare and have all in one place, as opposed to having to click between the different stats, which makes it harder to gain a full understanding of a hitter’s statistical portfolio.

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