MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 20th

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

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Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.




Boston at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Happy Monday (the ultimate oxymoron) everyone. We have 10 games on the schedule — two early and eight featured in the main slate. The two early games are included in the all-day and showdown slates. Price has really pitched well this season, posting a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%, but he’s coming off of the 10-day IL with an elbow injury. He’s expected to be limited to five or six innings, which does hurt his floor and his ceiling. While Toronto isn’t the easiest place to pitch, the Blue Jays have really struggled against southpaws this season. Their lineup has a combined xwOBA of only .295 with a strikeout rate of 25% against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Even though he’s limited, Price is close to a must play in the showdown slate.

The two-pitcher approach is typically the best strategy in showdown slates, but Jackson could easily end this game with negative fantasy points. He has pitched for a total of 14 major league teams in his career, and he’s coming off of a subpar 2018 campaign where he posted a 4.98 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. To make matters worse, he’s facing the Red Sox, whose lineup boasts an average xwOBA of .352 with a strikeout rate of only 21% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Even in the showdown slate, Jackson offers more risk than upside in a matchup against Boston.

Batter Grind Down

The goal of the showdown slate is to get as many Red Sox hitters as possible. In 2018, Edwin Jackson allowed a .351 xwOBA to lefties and a .332 xwOBA to righties. The Red Sox have one of the most talented offenses in baseball, and they get to face Jackson in a hitter-friendly ballpark. To emphasize how good this offense is, each of the first eight hitters in Boston’s lineup owns a .330+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching. My strategy in showdown is simple — play David Price, pick a cheap Blue Jays hitter, and fill out the rest of the lineup with Red Sox bats.

Elite PlaysAndrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers

Secondary PlaysMichael Chavis, Steve Pearce, Jackie Bradley, Sandy Leon

StackabilityBLUE

The Blue Jays have struggled against lefties this season and are facing a very talented one in David Price. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA. Preferably, we want to target low-strikeout hitters that bat from the right side of the plate. The only batter that meets the criteria is Freddy Galvis. He’s cheap across the industry and is batting fifth.

Elite PlaysFreddy Galvis (Showdown)

Secondary PlaysBrandon Drury, Randal Grichuk, Danny Jansen

StackabilityORANGE

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

    Interview after $100,000 Win

Comments

  • ifthethunder

    Holy moley, Jackie Bradley, Jr. hit a home run. I had him in my inital lineup as “dirt cheap leftie” but he soon left my lineup after looking at his record.

    OH WELL.
    ~

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