MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 16th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
Baltimore at Detroit – 4:10 PM ET
We have a single early game on the schedule today, so we will focus on its appeal for the all-day slate on FanDuel and the showdown slate on DraftKings. Means isn’t a pitcher that I target often when it comes to DFS, but he’s more than viable for showdown in a start against the Tigers. While we don’t expect him to sustain a 3.47 ERA in the long run, he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that gives up next to no hard contact. He gets to face a Tigers’ offense that has a serious lack of firepower. In fact, their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .286 with an average k-rate of 29% against southpaws.
Quick Breakdown: There are better options for the all-day slate, but Means is an elite play for showdown.
With a double-header coming up for the Tigers, Alexander will draw a spot start. Most of his recent work has come out of the bullpen, but he did go four innings in his last outing while throwing 63 pitches. If I had to predict a pitch count for this game, I would guess somewhere in the 65-75 range. This puts him in play for showdown, but he’ll have to be very efficient with his pitches if he’s going to make it through five innings. On the season, he owns a 4.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 3%. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .322 with an average k-rate of 21% against left-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Means is more of a priority play for showdown, but Alexander is still viable if you want to use the two-pitcher approach.
Batter Grind Down
The Orioles have struggled against southpaws this season and are playing on the road, but they are firmly in play today against Tyler Alexander. He has been very tough on lefties this season, but has allowed a .354 xwOBA and a .235 ISO to batters from the right side of the plate. For the all-day slate on FanDuel, we can pick and choose our spots with the Orioles depending on roster construction. For showdown, Hanser Alberto (.320 xwOBA), Trey Mancini (.385 xwOBA), Anthony Santander (.333 xwOBA), and Renato Nunez (.367 xwOBA) are all elite plays.
Stackability – YELLOW
The Tigers have the tougher matchup of these two offenses and can largely be ignored in the all-day slate on FanDuel. For showdown, they are nearly as viable as the Orioles, especially since they are considerably cheaper on average. John Means is a fly-ball pitcher that induces a lot of pop ups and easy fly-ball outs. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate. Jordy Mercer (.288 xwOBA), Miguel Cabrera (.359 xwOBA), and Jeimer Candelario (.291 xwOBA) are the top targets on a point-per-dollar basis in showdown.
Stackability – ORANGE