MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 17th - MIA @ COL
Miami at Colorado – 8:10 PM ET
Hector Noesi has a career strikeout rate just over 16% at the major league level, and tonight he gets a massive park downgrade moving from Marlins Park to Coors Field. We have other viable cheap pitching options that aren’t taking the mound in Denver, which is really all we need to know.
Quick Breakdown: Just say no to Noesi.
Jon Gray came out and dominated the Marlins last night, and tonight German Marquez is in the exact same matchup. Marquez’ 24.2% strikeout rate is down from his 28.2% mark from last season, but he still owns a strong 3.82 SIERA and Miami has been atrocious against right-handed pitching all year. The Marlins’ projected lineup has a collective ISO of just .132 with a strikeout rate of 26.3% against right-handed pitching this season. Marquez would be pushing $10,000 if this game were in Miami, but tonight we’re able to get him at a substantial discount just because he’s pitching at home. Marquez will get some ownership in this spot, but I’m still willing to take an overweight approach given his price tag and the matchup. He’s particularly appealing at $7,600 on FanDuel, especially considering we don’t have any aces on this slate in can’t-miss spots.
Quick Breakdown: Marquez is arguably the best tournament option on the slate, and I think you can even look his way in cash games at this price point.
Batter Grind Down
Not even Coors Field helped the Marlins look like a capable offense against Jon Gray last night, and tonight they arguably get an even worse matchup against German Marquez. Coors is Coors, though, so these bats are still in a better environment than they normally are. Marquez has allowed a .336 wOBA with 15 homers to lefties, so Isan Diaz once again stands out as an excellent value option. Neil Walker is fine, but he’s also nearly 80 years old. Garrett Cooper and Brian Anderson have decent power, while Lewis Brinson is almost the minimum on DraftKings. There’s upside in a Marlins stack, especially considering Marquez should get some ownership, but I once again plan to go under the field on all of these guys.
Elite Plays – Isan Diaz
Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE
Hector Noesi has awful career numbers against hitters of either handedness, and the Rockies’ 7.21 implied run total is right there at the top with Boston on tonight’s slate. Colorado was a bit of a letdown last night, but I don’t see any reason to stay away from them tonight. Charlie Blackmon (.410 wOBA vs. RHP), Nolan Arenado (.363) and Trevor Story (.396) are the top plays, as usual. Daniel Murphy, Yonder Alonso and Ryan McMahon stand out as lefties with some pop against Noesi, too. Ian Desmond, Tony Wolters / Dom Nunez and Raimel Tapia are secondary options to consider, especially as a way of differentiating your lineups next to their chalky teammates.
Stackability – BLUE