MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 17th - MIL @ WAS
Milwaukee at Washington – 7:05 PM ET
The main slate kicks off with the Brewers visiting the Nationals in D.C. Jordan Lyles has a 24.4% strikeout rate this season, which is slightly above-average. His walk rate is also pushing 10%, though, and his 4.58 SIERA and 4.71 ERA are both fairly pedestrian. He’s also going on the road to face a tough Washington projected lineup with a collective 20.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The right-hander has also seen his price tag come up a bit around the industry. If he were cheaper I’d have some interest, but I don’t really see the need to target an overpriced pitcher facing the Nationals tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Lyles won’t make the cut for me tonight.
Anibal Sanchez has seen his K-rate dip to just 19.3% on the year next to his 8.2% walk rate. His 5.04 SIERA also tells a different story than his 3.75 ERA. There are some Ks to be had in the Brewers’ lineup, but I’m not sure Sanchez is the guy to induce them. I’m not a believer in Anibal’s skill set at this point in his career, and he hasn’t even cracked 90 pitches in 3 of his last 4 outings. The Milwaukee projected lineup has a collective .241 ISO against right-handed pitching, which is massive. All things considered, there’s no reason to have much interest in Sanchez in this spot.
Quick Breakdown: Sanchez is an easy fade, too.
Batter Grind Down
Anibal has been a reverse-splits righty for most of his career, but lefties have given him more issues this season. He has conceded a .329 wOBA to lefties compared to a .279 mark to righties in 2019. LHBs have also homered 9 times compared to 6 dingers for RHBs. Milwaukee’s biggest power threats will have the platoon advantage against Sanchez, and it makes for a nice, high-upside stack. Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal and Eric Thames all have ISOs of .220 or better against right-handed pitching this season. Trent Grisham is a dirt-cheap lefty that may hit leadoff, while Keston Hiura has been mashing since his call-up. The Brewers are also priced like they’re facing an ace on DraftKings, for some reason. As a result, they’re one of the most appealing offenses on the slate.
Stackability – BLUE
Lyles has done a passable job against righties, but lefties have a .387 wOBA at his expense on the season. Juan Soto and Matt Adams instantly stand out as stellar individual options as lefty-swinging power hitters. Adam Eaton is a viable value, while Gerardo Parra is okay as a part of your stack if you want to get different with the Nats. I imagine Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner will go overlooked on an Arenado/Story slate, so I like them in your stacks, too. Brian Dozier and Yan Gomes are cheap righties that can help you fill thin positions. There’s plenty to like about this spot for the Nationals, and I doubt they garner a ton of ownership.
Stackability – GREEN