MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 17th - MIN @ TEX
Minnesota at Texas – 8:05 PM ET
Jose Berrios has a 22.6% strikeout rate this season, which is pretty underwhelming considering he’s one of the more expensive options on the slate. He’s also getting a park downgrade going into Texas to face a Rangers offense with a 5.09 implied run total. Berrios’ 4.30 SIERA is over a run higher than his ERA. Berrios will be largely unowned, but he hasn’t shown consistent upside this season, and this is just a bad spot on paper. Texas will strike out, but I don’t see the point in going here tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Berrios isn’t worth messing with tonight.
Ariel Jurado has a 17% K-rate, which is the lowest mark on the slate. He’s facing a powerful Twins lineup with an implied run total of 5.91, which is among the highest on the slate. Jurado has shown some ability to induce ground balls, but that’s the only good thing I can muster about him.
Quick Breakdown: Jurado is one of the worst plays on the slate.
Batter Grind Down
Jurado has conceded a .370 wOBA to right-handed bats this season next to a .318 mark against lefties. The Twins are expensive on DraftKings in particular, but it’s hard not to like these hitters in this spot. The righties like Miguel Sano, C.J. Cron and Mitch Garver stand out, and you can play them individually or as a part of a Minnesota stack. The lefties are fine, too, so Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario are excellent options despite Jurado’s slightly better success against LHBs. As usual, there is a lot to like about the Twins.
Stackability – GREEN
I don’t have any interest in Berrios tonight, but the Rangers aren’t all that appealing, either. Berrios has held hitters of either handedness below a .300 wOBA, and there are enough elite offenses on the slate to where the Rangers don’t come in very high on the list of priorities. Lefty power bats like Rougned Odor, Willie Calhoun, Shin-Soo Choo or Nomar Mazara as one-offs are fine, but I’d rather get bats in better matchups.
Elite Plays – Rougned Odor, Shin-Soo Choo
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW