MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 17th - SDP @ PHI
San Diego at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET
Dinelson Lamet has a 32.5% strikeout rate through 7 starts this season, which is the top mark on the slate. His walk rate is over 10%, though, and both factors effectively limit how deep into games he’s been able to pitch so far this season. The strikeout stuff is very real, and Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Harper are really the only bats in the Phillies’ lineup that will take walks. It’s not a lineup that strikes out a ton, though, and Lamet does get a park downgrade. I’m definitely willing to take some chances with Lamet’s massive strikeout upside in tournaments, but it’s not like this spot is without risk. I’d go nowhere near him in cash games.
Quick Breakdown: Lamet carries appeal in GPPs thanks to his strikeout potential, but it’s a risky spot.
Zach Eflin has an underwhelming 19.2% K-rate this season with a walk rate hovering around 6%. He’s a fly ball pitcher pitching in a favorable home run park, which helps explain how he’s allowed 21 homers through 24 outings. Eflin has fared better against righties in his career, and the Padres’ lineup is heavy on RHBs. Fernando Tatis getting hurt takes one of the best bats out of the lineup, but he’s also one of the higher-strikeout hitters they have. San Diego’s projected lineup has a 22.7% strikeout rate against righties, which is lower than we’ve seen for most of the season. Eflin has also been working out of the bullpen lately, so he’s likely not fully stretched out. The price is nice, but there’s nothing else that stands out about him tonight.
Quick Breakdown: I’ll pass on Eflin tonight.
Batter Grind Down
Eflin has yielded a .361 wOBA to left-handed hitters this year, and lefties have twice as many homers (14) as righties (7) against him. I’d stop short of calling them top options, but Eric Hosmer, the big power of Josh Naylor and Francisco Mejia grade out pretty well here considering Eflin’s struggles to contain opposite-handed hitters. Eflin’s ground ball rate is above 47% against righties, but I still like an inexpensive Manny Machado in this spot with the park upgrade. Ty France is also a cheap power hitter worth a look, especially if you’re stacking the Pads.
Stackability – YELLOW
Lamet has allowed a .365 wOBA to left-handed bats in his career, while his K-rate is about 10% higher against righties, too. Bryce Harper could easily walk 4 times in this matchup, but he has impressive numbers (.216 ISO, .372 wOBA) against righties and this looks like a good spot for him. Corey Dickerson is a sneaky left-handed power bat worth consideration, too. I’m far less into the RHBs against Lamet (.240 wOBA allowed this season), but Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura are all fairly inexpensive. Logan Morrison has some pop from the left side if he manages to crack the lineup again. Harper is pretty clearly the top option here, though.
Stackability – YELLOW