MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 24th - ARI @ MIL
Arizona at Milwaukee – 7:10 PM ET
Aside from a couple of lackluster starts, Zach Gallen has been excellent so far in his rookie season. Gallen owns a stellar 27.7% strikeout rate, but his walk rate pushing 13% is obviously problematic. That’s a bit inflated by his 6-walk performance last time out, but it’s still dicey. Gallen’s 4.65 SIERA suggests his 2.45 ERA is due to regress, and he gets a park downgrade today going into Milwaukee. The Brewers’ projected lineup has a 22.5% K-rate against righties with an ISO over .230. Gallen doesn’t come at a discount, but I think the strikeout upside is worth chasing in tournaments, especially if the matchup will scare people away.
Quick Breakdown: Gallen has the upside to chase in tournaments, but there’s no need to risk it in cash games.
Chase Anderson is about average from a strikeouts (21.8%) and walks (8.3%) perspective, and his 4.54 ERA and 4.77 SIERA are hardly inspiring. Anderson endured one of the worst outings of any pitcher all season last time out (10 ER in 2.1 innings at Washington), but before that he hadn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his previous 10 starts. Arizona isn’t an easy strikeout matchup (none of the top 4 hitters have a K-rate above 20%), but Anderson’s price is appealing. On the bright side, Anderson will likely face 6 lefties today, and he has steadily been more effective against lefties than righties over the course of his career. Anderson is right there with Trevor Williams as my favorite SP2 options on this slate.
Quick Breakdown: It’s scary, but Anderson is a solid SP2 value today.
Batter Grind Down
As mentioned, Anderson has been effective against lefties. He’s limited LHBs to a .247 wOBA this season, while righties are up at .383. Arizona has a mediocre 4.37 implied run total here, so Vegas isn’t all that bullish on these bats, either. Christian Walker as the lone power-hitting righty in the lineup carries some appeal in tournaments, while David Peralta is fairly priced in a park that plays up lefty power. Guys like Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar are priced up, however, which makes them easy fades. Other than Walker or Peralta, there isn’t much here.
Elite Plays – Christian Walker (GPP)
Secondary Plays – David Peralta
Stackability – ORANGE
Gallen has allowed just 3 homers through his first 10 starts. Going into Milwaukee can be frightening, but I respect him enough to where I’m not super into the Brewers side of this game, either. Milwaukee is projected for 4.63 runs here, and their patient lineup could give Gallen some trouble. Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas and Yasmani Grandal are pretty much always viable when facing a right-hander. Grandal is particularly appealing as one of the few catchers with legitimate power, while Yelich doesn’t seem like he’ll be all that popular tonight. Eric Thames and Keston Hiura are viable one-offs, but they won’t come cheap.
Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE