MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 24th - BOS @ SDP
Boston at San Diego – 8:40 PM ET
Nathan Eovaldi was supposed to be the Red Sox’ closer, but he’s been forced back into the rotation due to injuries. Eovaldi was blasted for 5 earned runs with 3 walks in just 2 innings by the Orioles in his last start. He was limited to 43 pitches despite Boston planning to cap him around 60. I’d imagine he’s still not fully stretched out, and $7,500 on DraftKings is not a particularly cheap price tag. The Padres present an appealing strikeout matchup, but given all the question marks around Eovaldi I just don’t see him as a necessity tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Eovaldi’s probable pitch count, wobbly form and mid-range price tag make him an easy fade.
Only Mike Clevinger has a higher K-rate than the 31.3% mark posted by Dinelson Lamet so far this season. The right-hander also has a walk rate pushing 10%, which has helped limit how deep he’s been able to pitch into games. The Red Sox will lose a DH tonight, but Boston is still a daunting matchup with a low 19.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Boston’s relatively low 4.48 implied run total is showing Lamet plenty of respect, but he’s not discounted for the matchup. While he does have slate-breaking upside, I’d rather be on the other side of this one tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Lamet is always viable as a dart in GPPs, but I’d prefer to load up on Clevinger.
Batter Grind Down
The Red Sox put 11 runs on the board last night against Chris Paddack and friends, and tonight they’re priced down for the ballpark downgrade and matchup with Lamet. Lamet is a good pitcher, but he has struggled with control and the Red Sox are just too talented to be as cheap as they are. Rafael Devers is the only hitter priced above $5,000 on DK. J.D. Martinez ($4,300), Mookie Betts ($4,800), Xander Bogaerts ($4,500) and Andrew Benintendi ($4,100) all grade out as phenomenal value options considering they’re usually hovering around the $5,000 range. It’s far from an ideal spot, but the idea of getting cheap Red Sox at reasonably low ownership is very alluring in tournaments. Christian Vazquez is a reasonable catcher play, as well.
Stackability – YELLOW
Eovaldi has allowed a .341 wOBA to left-handed hitters in his career. There isn’t much to love from the left side in the Padres lineup, but Josh Naylor, Eric Hosmer and Francisco Mejia are reasonable value plays. Manny Machado and Hunter Renfroe are also cheap considering their massive power upside, and it’s not like Eovaldi or the Boston bullpen have enjoyed much success this season. The Padres are actually slight betting favorites in this game with a 4.52 implied run total, so targeting these bats isn’t the worst idea.
Stackability – YELLOW