MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 24th - COL @ STL
Colorado at St. Louis – 7:15 PM ET
Chi Chi Gonzalez has a 13% K-rate with a 10% walk rate, and his 5.91 SIERA is the highest among tonight’s probable starters. It helps that he won’t be pitching at Coors tonight, but Gonzalez has shown zero upside this season and the St. Louis lineup has gotten healthier over the past few weeks. I’d rather take a shot on Chi Chi than Edwin Jackson or Sparky, but I’d much rather just find the extra funds for Trevor Williams or Chase Anderson if punting SP2.
Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez isn’t an atrocious punt option, but I’ll go elsewhere.
Dakota Hudson doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s been good about generating ground balls. The rookie has a 17.5% strikeout rate next to an impressive 57.6% ground ball rate. The lack of Ks hurts his upside, but the ground balls also help him avoid getting blasted. While I’m a fan of Hudson’s matchup with the Rockies away from Coors, his price tag has come up around the industry. While this isn’t an amazing slate for pitching, there are enough other options in Hudson’s tier to where I’m not very interested in looking his way tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Hudson is a fine play in a vacuum, but he’s too expensive compared to some other options.
Batter Grind Down
Hudson has had dramatic splits all year long. He’s held righties in check to the tune of a .296 wOBA, while lefties boast a .373 mark against him. Charlie Blackmon is a solid one-off, but he’s not discounted away from Coors tonight. Ryan McMahon and Daniel Murphy will also have the platoon edge, but I’m not dying to load up on hitters from a team with a 3.77 implied run total tonight.
Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon
Stackability – ORANGE
The Cardinals are projected to score 5.23 runs tonight, which is one of the highest totals on the slate. Chi Chi has not been good, and he’s been particularly brutal against lefties. LHBs have a .414 wOBA against him, so it’s yet another spot in which Matt Carpenter grades out decently on paper. The problem, of course, is that Carp has been terrible all year long. The other lefties here (Kolten Wong, Dexter Fowler, Tommy Edman) don’t really stand out, either. Gonzalez has flashed more ability against RHBs, but I’d still rather play guys like Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna or Paul DeJong against him. Harrison Bader and Matt Wieters are cheap ways to get exposure to this offense. I prefer STL as a secondary stack, but the full stack has merit, too.
Stackability – GREEN