MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 24th - NYY @ LAD
NY Yankees at LA Dodgers – 4:05 PM ET
James Paxton dominated the Dodgers last night, but C.C Sabathia isn’t James Paxton. Sabathia owns a 21.5% K-rate on the year with a walk rate over 8%. His 4.76 SIERA is slightly better than his 5.01 ERA, and he threw just 67 pitches in his first start off the IL last time out. The Dodgers do profile worse against lefties, but Sabathia is a low-upside guy to begin with, and I’d be surprised if he threw more than 80 pitches this afternoon. I’d rather punt with Joe Ross than Sabathia, mostly due to the pitch count concerns with C.C.
Quick Breakdown: You can punt with C.C. in a GPP, but the upside feels very limited.
The Yankees made quick work of Hyun-Jin Ryu last night, and today they’ll take their hacks against rookie Tony Gonsolin. The right-hander has a strikeout rate of 20.6% through 4 big league outings. Walks haven’t been a problem for him (1.4%) and he’s kept the ball on the ground at a 49.1% clip. He threw 72 pitches in his last start because the Dodgers wanted to piggyback him with Dustin May against the Braves. May won’t be pitching today, though, so Gonsolin should have a longer leash. The problem, obviously, is the matchup. The Yankees get a park and league downgrade going into the NL, but the hitter with the lowest wOBA against righties in the projected lineup is Didi Gregorius (.344). Gonsolin has a little upside, but he’s also priced up a bit on DraftKings. On FanDuel, you can get Zach Eflin against the Marlins for $100 more on the early slate. You can definitely play Gonsolin on DK if you’re wanting to fade the expensive price tag of Quintana, but the risk speaks for itself.
Quick Breakdown: Gonsolin is viable on DraftKings, mostly because pitching is a horror show on this slate.
Batter Grind Down
Gonsolin has solid numbers to this point, but the 4-outing sample size is obviously tiny. The Yankees have enough power in the lineup to break any slate, so they’re stackable just about every single day. Aaron Judge has shown signs of busting out of his slump, and he’s still dirt cheap around the industry. The ownership will be huge, which makes him a bit of a scary fade. Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez, D.J. LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres are elite options at their respective positions, as usual. Gio Urshela, Mike Tauchman and Brett Gardner offer savings, as well. The Yankees are easily stackable. Their 4.36 implied run total is very low by their standards, but it’s hard not to like them.
Stackability – YELLOW
C.C. has allowed 25 homers through just 18 starts, 17 of which have been hit by righties. Having the platoon advantage against guys like Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and Corey Seager is a plus for Sabathia, but the right-handed hitters profile awfully well here. The outrageous DraftKings price tag on Will Smith makes him an interesting GPP option, but the rest of the RHBs are pretty cheap. Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, A.J. Pollock and Jedd Gyorko are easy to fit. The Dodgers’ 5.14 implied run total is easily the highest on the early slate, so this offense carries plenty of appeal. Bellinger and Muncy both have wOBAs over .400 against same-handed pitching this season, so I wouldn’t shy away from them, either.
Stackability – GREEN