MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 24th - TEX @ CHW
Texas at Chicago White Sox – 7:10 PM ET
Kolby Allard has made 3 starts this season, including 2 with Texas. The lefty has a K-rate of 21.7% with a walk rate of 11.6%. His 5.12 SIERA is better than his 6.60 ERA, but neither is something to write home about. The White Sox have an implied run total of 4.92 tonight, as well. Chicago has a collective strikeout rate of 23.7% against lefties, but they’ve also shown some pretty solid power potential against southpaws this season. Even on a mediocre slate for pitching, there isn’t much reason to love Allard, especially considering there isn’t much value in the price tag.
Quick Breakdown: Allard hardly stands out on a full slate at this price point.
Ivan Nova has a painfully low 14.1% strikeout rate with a 5.9% walk rate on the year. He’s been more effective as the season has gone on, though, and he now has 2 complete games across his last 6 starts. The 5.18 SIERA suggests he’s going to regress at some point, but he’s done a fine job of keeping the ball on the ground (46.7%) without allowing a ton of hard contact. Texas has a 4.58 implied total, which suggests that Vegas is buying at least some of what Nova has been selling. You can do worse than Nova on this slate, but any pitcher with a 14% K-rate makes for a tough sell for fantasy purposes.
Quick Breakdown: Nova is playable in a GPP if you think he can catch lightning in a bottle again, but I’ll be watching from the sidelines.
Batter Grind Down
While I don’t really want to play Nova, I’m also wary of targeting him with bats. The right-hander has allowed a .348 wOBA with 13 homers to left-handed hitters this season, and the Rangers do have some lefty power with Shin-Soo Choo, Rougned Odor, Willie Calhoun and Danny Santana in the lineup. I think all 4 are viable tonight, but I’d rather take them as one-offs as opposed to stacking them. Nova getting demolished here wouldn’t be totally shocking, but it’s not like this is a good Rangers offense to begin with.
Stackability – YELLOW
Kolby Allard has struggled with walks early in his career, and the White Sox do have some appealing right-handed bats to throw at him. Jose Abreu (.414 wOBA vs. LHP), James McCann (.372) and Yoan Moncada (.342) are the top targets, while Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez have some power, as well. Welington Castillo is a viable cheap catcher option if he cracks the lineup, as well. I won’t go all-in here considering the White Sox are still a mediocre offense and Allard is a prospect with some pedigree, but this is still a relatively inexpensive stack with plenty of upside.
Stackability – YELLOW