MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 24th - TOR @ SEA
Toronto at Seattle – 9:10 PM ET
Wilmer Font is slated to open for the Jays before Brock Stewart takes the wheel. Stewart has a 16.2% strikeout rate across his 2 outings with Toronto, and he topped out at 76 pitches in his last game. The Mariners have a 22.4% strikeout rate against righties, and the bottom of the order has very little power between Dee Gordon, Tim Lopes and Jake Fraley. Stewart is an easy fade at his price point on the main slate considering the pivots we have at our disposal, but if you’re playing the late slate I think there’s plenty of merit to looking his way. The upside isn’t massive, but the matchup with the Mariners is promising.
Quick Breakdown: Stewart is a late slate-only type of play tonight.
Hey, it’s King Felix! The Mariners will be dusting off Felix Hernandez tonight for his first start since May 11. The former Cy Young winner’s best days are clearly behind him. He has a 19.5% strikeout rate this season, though his 4.39 SIERA is quite a bit better than his bloated 6.52 ERA. The Jays’ projected lineup has some whiffs (26.5% vs. RHP), but Hernandez isn’t someone that misses many bats these days. He threw 69 pitches in his last rehab start in the minors, so 80 would seem like a reasonable maximum projection for him tonight. You can try him on the late slate at this price tag and hope he turns back the clock, but he’s an easy guy to avoid on the main slate.
Quick Breakdown: Not today, King Felix.
Batter Grind Down
Toronto has a 4.95 implied run total against Hernandez and the Mariners. This is another team that is incredibly easy to stack thanks to their cheap price tags, and they’ve added some power to the lineup since calling up some of their top prospects in recent months. Felix has allowed a .462 wOBA to lefties on the year, so Cavan Biggio, Justin Smoak, Rowdy Tellez and Derek Fisher grade out as nice values with the platoon advantage. Hernandez hasn’t been much better against righties over the last few years, so I still have plenty of interest in RHBs like Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero and Randal Grichuk. I’m happy with any Jays exposure I can get tonight.
Stackability – GREEN
Seattle is projected for 5.05 runs tonight against Font, Stewart, et al. They don’t have as much power as they did earlier in the season, but guys like Kyle Seager, Omar Narvaez and Daniel Vogelbach still pack a punch from the left side. Fraley, Gordon and Lopes are very cheap, while Austin Nola, J.P. Crawford and Mallex Smith make sense in your stacks. It’s a gross-looking team to be loading up on, but given the implied total and value I get it. The Mariners are a team that can help you get a Clevinger-Gibson pairing, for example.
Stackability – GREEN