MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 20th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
Colorado at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET
The early afternoon slate kicks off with the Rockies visiting the Yankees. Antonio Senzatela has a painfully low 12.5% strikeout rate this season. That’s well below his career rate of 16.3%, which is underwhelming in its own right. The right-hander has a walk rate north of 10% and he has the misfortune of going into steamy New York to face the Yankees today. It’s better than pitching at Coors Field, but not by much. Today’s Yankee lineup has a team ISO of .214 with a .359 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. This is a dreadful pitching slate, but not dreadful enough to get me into Senzatela.
Quick Breakdown: This is a terrifying spot for Senzatela.
Masahiro Tanaka is one of the better pitchers available on this slate, but that isn’t saying much. The right-hander has a 20.8% strikeout rate on the season, which is a dip of about 5% from last season. He’s still not walking anyone, but he’s allowing hard hits at a 41% clip and his 4.35 SIERA is quite a bit less impressive than his 3.81 ERA. The Rockies aren’t the same offense outside of Coors, but it’s not like Yankee Stadium is some great pitcher’s park, either. There are some strikeouts in this lineup, but the projected group on the whole has whiffed just under 21% of the time against RHPs on the year. This game has excellent hitting weather, and as a result it’s a pretty dangerous spot to be paying for Tanaka.
Quick Breakdown: You can look his way in tournaments, but I’d prefer an underweight approach with Tanaka.
Batter Grind Down
Tanaka has been a reverse-splits righty during his time in the majors, but this season he’s shown a wide traditional split. He’s held righties to a respectable .264 wOBA with 8 homers allowed, while lefties have a .338 wOBA against him with 10 homers. I’d prefer to trust the larger sample here, though the fact that he’s always been homer-prone means I’m fine targeting hitters of either handedness in this spot. Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon aren’t much cheaper than they would be in Coors, but they’re still the top overall targets here. David Dahl, Daniel Murphy and Trevor Story aren’t far behind, while Tony Wolters and Garrett Hampson are fine if you need some salary relief. Stacking Colorado is plenty viable, especially with ownership presumably flocking to Yankees and Wrigley.
Stackability – GREEN
Senzatela has struggled with hitters from both sides of the plate. Lefties have a .399 wOBA against him, while righties are sitting at .315 entering this game. The Yankees are obviously one of the most talented offenses in all of baseball, and they’re stackable just about every night. Today is no exception. Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks stand out with the platoon advantage, but Aaron Judge, Luke Voit, Edwin Encarnacion and Gleyber Torres each have ISOs north of .200 this season against right-handed pitching. D.J. LeMahieu is a hitting machine, while Austin Romine and Brett Gardner can be deployed to help make your Yankee stack look a little different. New York’s implied run total of 6.92 is the highest on the entire day at the time of this writing, so don’t be afraid to load up.
Stackability – BLUE