MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 21st
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET
Happy Saturday! Please note that I’m actually writing this on Friday evening, so a few things may be different between now and the time you’re reading this. T.J. Zeuch is slated to get the ball for the Jays on Saturday afternoon in the Bronx. The rookie right-hander has a low K-rate around 18% with a walk rate around 13% across 3 appearances with Toronto on the year. He put up a passable outing against these Yankees last time out, but I don’t really like his chances at a repeat effort. He’s affordable, but that’s not enough to get me interested.
Quick Breakdown: Zeuch is an easy fade in a daunting matchup with NYY.
James Paxton has a strikeout rate north of 29% with a 9.1% walk rate. Toronto has enough right-handed power in the lineup to make this a fairly scary matchup, but the Jays’ projected starters have also struck out nearly 23% of the time against southpaws this season. It’s not a perfect spot for Paxton, but his price tag isn’t all that cumbersome on FanDuel or Yahoo. Given the strikeout upside he’s shown for years, he is a very appealing high-end option.
Quick Breakdown: Paxton is an elite play in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Paxton has yielded a .315 wOBA with 20 dingers on the season to right-handed hitters, so I do think there’s merit to looking at some of the better Jays RHBs in this spot. Vladimir Guerrero, Lourdes Gurriel, Randal Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez have shown plus power against opposite-handed pitching, and they’re all pretty easy to afford. Reese McGuire is a perfectly fine catcher play, while Bo Bichette is obviously playable if he’s back in there after going into concussion protocol the other night. It’s obviously not a high-probability stack against a quality pitcher in Paxton, but you can almost always target cheap power hitters.
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Zeuch is a good ground ball pitcher, and stacking against ground ball guys can certainly be frustrating. Still, his xFIP is quite a bit higher against left-handed hitters in a limited sample of major league work. Didi Gregorius stands out as a nice option, especially in this ballpark, while Brett Gardner has flashed a sneaky amount of power this season. The righties are still perfectly fine plays considering that’s where most of the meat is in the Yankee lineup. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, D.J. LeMahieu and Luke Voit are all very much in play, while Clint Frazier and Gio Urshela are decent salary relief options. As is the case on just about every slate, a Yankees stack is very viable.
Stackability – GREEN