MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 12th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
Milwaukee at Miami – 1:10 PM ET
There are technically 15 games on the schedule today, but the second half of the double-header between the Yankees and Tigers isn’t included in any of the slates, so we will break down the seven-game early slate and the seven-game main slate. Gonzalez hasn’t been in the best of form recently and he has mediocre numbers as a whole — 5.17 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 11%. The Marlins aren’t a great offense, but they are much better against southpaws than they are against righties.
Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez is an easy fade in all formats and I hope that he soaks up ownership in the early slate.
Smith has struggled with the long ball recently, but has solid numbers as a whole — 4.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 9%. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher, so he benefits greatly from pitching in Miami. The Brewers are playing short-handed and their lineup isn’t nearly as intimidating as it was earlier in the season. In fact, their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .310 with an average k-rate of 28% against left-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: The early slate is loaded with pitching options, but Smith is viable in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
The Brewers are favored in this game, but they see a negative park shift playing in Miami and they draw a difficult matchup against Caleb Smith. On the season, he has struck out 28% of batters and has held both lefties and righties under a .320 xwOBA. He has allowed a .252 ISO to batters from the right side of the plate, but Lorenzo Cain (.348 xwOBA), Yasmani Grandal (.392 xwOBA), Tyler Austin (.369 xwOBA), and Ryan Braun (.372 xwOBA) are deep tournament fliers at best.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
Gio Gonzalez is an easy matchup to break down for the Marlins. He has held lefties to a .285 xwOBA and a .086 ISO this season, but has allowed a .355 xwOBA and a .216 ISO to righties. As noted above, the Marlins have been much better against southpaws than they have been against righties this season. We need value if we are going to spend up on pitching in this slate and we can find it in Miami. Jon Berti (.401 xwOBA), Miguel Rojas (.303 xwOBA), Starlin Castro (.376 xwOBA), Garrett Cooper (.353 xwOBA), and Jorge Alfaro (.332 xwOBA) all bat from the right side and rate out well against Gonzalez.
Stackability – YELLOW