MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 12th - ATL @ PHI
Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:15 PM ET
Teheran is viable every few starts when he draws a great matchup and is pitching in a good ballpark. His numbers are mediocre as a whole this season — 5.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 11%. He isn’t particularly great against batters from either side of the plate and he draws a fairly difficult matchup on the road against the Phillies. He’s currently listed as a slight favorite, but the total for this game is set at 10.0 runs.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Teheran in all formats.
Smyly is still a volatile pitcher, but he’s been significantly better during his time with the Phillies. In 18 starts overall, he owns a 4.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 11%. With both starting pitchers owning double-digit walk rates, we should definitely see how hitter or pitcher-friendly the umpire behind home plate is. While the Braves do strikeout at a high rate, they are an awful matchup. Their projected lineup boasts an average xwOBA of .347 with an average ISO of .242 against left-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Smyly offers more risk than upside given his matchup and the fact that he’s pitching in a home run-friendly ballpark.
Batter Grind Down
The Braves should be licking their chops for a matchup against Drew Smyly. While he’s had some nice outings since joining the Phillies, he’s one of the most hittable pitchers taking the mound this evening. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .355+ xwOBA and a .230+ ISO to batters from both sides of the plate. Meanwhile, each of the first seven batters in Atlanta’s projected lineup boasts an xwOBA of at least .335 and an ISO of at least .185 against southpaws — Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Adam Duvall, Dansby Swanson, and Austin Riley.
Stackability – GREEN
The Phillies are a sneaky stack tonight, as they should fly under the radar even though they are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Julio Teheran has an average strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he’s been mediocre against batters from both sides of the plate this season. The Phillies are still in the mix for the wildcard, so they still have plenty of motivation. Cesar Hernandez offers nice value if he’s batting leadoff, while J.T. Realmuto (.340 xwOBA), Bryce Harper, (.382 xwOBA) Rhys Hoskins (.322 xwOBA), and Corey Dickerson (.330 xwOBA) have the best numbers against right-handed pitching.
Stackability – YELLOW