MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 12th - CIN @ SEA
Cincinnati at Seattle – 10:10 PM ET
Mahle has quietly put together a nice season for the Reds, posting a 4.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 6%. When he’s on the mound, it’s less about the team he is facing and more about the makeup of their lineup. He has been very tough on righties this season, but has allowed a .347 xwOBA and a .255 ISO to batters from the left side of the plate. Even though the Mariners don’t have the most talented lefties around, they are projected to roll out seven of them in their lineup tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Mahle is viable thanks to a lack of options at pitcher, but I don’t mind the fade if the Mariners have six or seven lefties in their lineup.
Milone will be the primary reliever in tonight’s game against the Reds. He’s been decent overall this season, posting a 4.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 5%. He’s not going to throw more than 75-90 pitches, but he’ll be in line for the win if the Mariners are winning when he leaves the game. The Reds have two very good hitters against southpaws (Aquino and Suarez), but aren’t great outside of that. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .302 with an average k-rate of 23% against southpaws.
Quick Breakdown: Milone is right there with Allard as my favorite SP2 of the main slate.
Batter Grind Down
Tommy Milone is a decent southpaw, but he does allow quite a bit of power to batters from both sides of the plate. On the season, he has given up a .315 ISO to lefties and a .236 ISO to righties. This isn’t a great ballpark for hitters, but the Reds do get to use the DH in this series. At the very least, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez (.390 xwOBA), Aristides Aquino (.431 xwOBA), and Tucker Barnhart are worth a look in tournaments.
Stackability – ORANGE
The Mariners provide some nice leverage against Tyler Mahle, who will surely be popular on multi-pitcher sites this evening. He’s cheap, he’s pitching in a good ballpark, and he has a nice matchup. However, the Mariners have a left-handed heavy lineup and on the season, Mahle has allowed a .347 xwOBA and a .255 ISO to batters from the left side of the plate. Shed Long, J.P. Crawford, Kyle Seager, Omar Narvaez, and Daniel Vogelbach all bat from the left side and have decent numbers against right-handed pitching.
Stackability – YELLOW