MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 12th - KCR @ CHW
Kansas City at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET
Lopez pitched well his last time out, but it was against the Marlins in Miami. Overall, he owns a 4.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 8%. I expect many to look his way on DraftKings given the fact that he’s only $5,000, but he’s listed as a large underdog and he’s pitching on the road. I doubt this is a hot take, but I prefer the White Sox offense over Lopez, especially if ownership is going to gravitate to the latter.
Quick Breakdown: Lopez is certainly viable at his price point on DraftKings, but this feels like a good spot to fade the cheap chalk.
Giolito has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season. In 28 starts, he owns a 3.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a walk rate of 8%. While he’s a fly-ball pitcher, he’s very good at limiting home runs. This leads to many easy fly-ball outs. He draws a mediocre matchup against the Royals, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .320 with an average k-rate of 20% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Giolito is firmly in play for tournaments, but I do prefer Darvish as my SP1 at a cheaper price point.
Batter Grind Down
Very few hitters have had success against Lucas Giolito this season. He has an elite strikeout rate (32%) and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a 1.20 HR/9. The Royals put up a bunch of runs last night, but have underwhelmed against right-handed pitching this season. The Royals aren’t priced at a big enough discount to warrant consideration in the early slate.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
I really want to stack the White Sox here, but I couldn’t believe their salaries when I pulled them up. Each of the first five hitters in this lineup is at least $4,000 on DraftKings. For that reason, I prefer the stack on FanDuel. Jorge Lopez has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate, but has allowed a .384 xwOBA and a .249 ISO to lefties this season. Yoan Moncada is a strong one-off target, Eloy Jimenez has been on fire over the last two weeks, and the likes of Leury Garcia, Tim Anderson, and Jose Abreu are all viable in tournaments.
Stackability – YELLOW