MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 12th - LAD @ BAL
LA Dodgers at Baltimore – 7:15 PM ET
We kick off tonight’s seven-game slate with the Dodgers and Orioles. Hill was already a risk in terms of his pitch count and that’s an even bigger concern in his first start back from injury. He has missed nearly three months with a forearm injury and he only threw 30 pitches in a simulated game last Friday. I know a matchup against the Orioles is enticing, but Hill isn’t going to pitch deep enough into this game to warrant consideration.
Quick Breakdown: Let’s take a wait and see approach with Hill.
Bundy isn’t a terrible pitcher, but there are matchups where you want to avoid him like the plague. As a massive underdog in a game that features a total of 10.0 runs, this feels like one of them. The Dodgers’ projected lineup boasts an average xwOBA of .357 with an average ISO of .256 against right-handed pitching. The Dodgers see a positive park shift and they get to use the DH in this series. There are better options for cash games and tournaments.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bundy in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
The Dodgers are a tough offense for me to fade. They see a positive park shift playing in Baltimore, they are facing a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of home runs, and they get to use the DH in this series. For Dylan Bundy to have success, he needs to strike batters out at a high rate and the Dodgers put the ball in play as often as nearly any team in baseball. Bundy gives up home runs to batters from both sides of the plate, which brings a full stack into play. Joc Pederson (.358 xwOBA), Corey Seager (.222 ISO), A.J. Pollock (.225 ISO), Cody Bellinger (.443 xwOBA), and Matt Beaty (.352 xwOBA) are all strong plays at their respective positions.
Stackability – GREEN
It’s hard to know what to expect from Rich Hill tonight. He hasn’t made a start in nearly three months and for him to have success, he needs to locate his fastball and his curveball has to have a ton of movement. The Orioles aren’t great against southpaws to begin with, so this could be a situation to avoid completely. Hanser Alberto (.324 xwOBA), Trey Mancini (.264 ISO), Anthony Santander (.258 ISO), and Renato Nunez (.240 ISO) are deep tournament fliers at best in tonight’s seven-game slate.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE