MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 12th - NYY @ DET (1)
NY Yankees at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET
Happ and Boyd are currently projected to start the first game of this double-header, so for our purposes I hope that ends up being the case. It’s been a down year for Happ, who owns a 4.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 20%. However, his k-rate has been trending in the right direction and it’s worth noting that his average fastball velocity and his swinging strike rate are both up over his last few starts. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Tigers, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .298 with an average k-rate of 27% against southpaws.
Quick Breakdown: This is a good spot for Happ, but he does feel a bit overpriced. From a raw projection standpoint, I prefer Smith against the Brewers.
Boyd has been incredible this season, posting a 3.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31%. His numbers look great on the surface, but he has given up home runs in bunches, especially over the last couple of months. In fact, he has allowed 17 home runs in his last 10 starts, which is one of the worst marks in baseball during that stretch. He offers more risk than upside against the Yankees, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .354 with an average ISO of .240 against southpaws.
Quick Breakdown: Boyd is overpriced for a matchup against the Yankees.
Batter Grind Down
With everyone looking to spend up on pitching and/or spending up for hitters in Coors Field, the Yankees should fly under the radar for tournaments. Matt Boyd is an excellent pitcher, but he has allowed 17 home runs in his last 10 starts. The Yankees are one of the best offenses in baseball and their lineup is loaded with right-handed power. DJ LeMahieu (.436 xwOBA), Aaron Judge (.459 xwOBA), Gleyber Torres (.350 xwOBA), Edwin Encarnacion (.359 xwOBA), and Gary Sanchez (.321 xwOBA) all bat from the right side and have good power numbers against southpaws.
Stackability – YELLOW
If J.A. Happ was cheap and if he was expected to be popular, I would have interest in the Tigers’ offense as leverage in tournaments. However, I doubt Happ’s ownership will be too high given the fact that he’s expensive. The righties in this lineup are still worth a look, as Happ has allowed a .341 xwOBA and a .233 ISO to batters from that side of the plate. Travis Demeritte (.326 xwOBA), Miguel Cabrera (.347 xwOBA), and Ronny Rodriguez (.283 ISO) all bat from the right side and all grade out as nice values.
Stackability – ORANGE