MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 12th - PIT @ SFG

Pittsburgh at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Musgrove has been underpriced all season on DraftKings and that continues today in a road start against the Giants. He’s still only $6,200 and will likely be one of the highest owned pitchers of the early slate. In 28 starts, he owns a 4.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 5%. He does give up a decent amount of power to lefties, but that’s largely negated in this ballpark and he’s projected to have the platoon advantage here. San Francisco’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .289 with an average k-rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: While I like paying up at both pitcher spots, Musgrove is my favorite value.

Samardzija is a very streaky pitcher that enters today’s game in bad form. Overall, he owns a 4.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a walk rate of 7%. I like that he’s pitching at home, but he is facing a low-strikeout Pirates’ offense and he’s $1,400 more expensive than Musgrove on DraftKings.

Quick Breakdown: Samardzija is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a low-strikeout offense. I will look elsewhere.

Batter Grind Down

The Pirates don’t have a ton of firepower in their lineup and they are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. This spot is less than ideal, but they draw a decent matchup against Jeff Samardzija. He has a below-average strikeout rate and has allowed a .339 xwOBA and a .236 ISO to batters from the left side of the plate this season. At the very least, Bryan Reynolds (.374 xwOBA), Colin Moran (.327 xwOBA), and Josh Bell (.398 xwOBA) are worth a look in tournaments.

Elite PlaysColin Moran, Josh Bell (GPP)

Secondary PlaysJosh Bell (Cash), Bryan Reynolds (GPP)

StackabilityORANGE

Joe Musgrove throws a lot of strikes and has been fairly tough on batters from both sides of the plate this season. The Giants’ offense has been better in recent weeks, but this is still a below-average spot for their offense as a whole. Musgrove does give up a decent amount to power to lefties, which brings Mike Yastrzemski and Brandon Belt into play for large-field tournaments.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysMike Yastrzemski (GPP), Brandon Belt (GPP)

StackabilityORANGE

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

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