MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 12th - PIT @ SFG
Pittsburgh at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET
Musgrove has been underpriced all season on DraftKings and that continues today in a road start against the Giants. He’s still only $6,200 and will likely be one of the highest owned pitchers of the early slate. In 28 starts, he owns a 4.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 5%. He does give up a decent amount of power to lefties, but that’s largely negated in this ballpark and he’s projected to have the platoon advantage here. San Francisco’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .289 with an average k-rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: While I like paying up at both pitcher spots, Musgrove is my favorite value.
Samardzija is a very streaky pitcher that enters today’s game in bad form. Overall, he owns a 4.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a walk rate of 7%. I like that he’s pitching at home, but he is facing a low-strikeout Pirates’ offense and he’s $1,400 more expensive than Musgrove on DraftKings.
Quick Breakdown: Samardzija is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a low-strikeout offense. I will look elsewhere.
Batter Grind Down
The Pirates don’t have a ton of firepower in their lineup and they are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. This spot is less than ideal, but they draw a decent matchup against Jeff Samardzija. He has a below-average strikeout rate and has allowed a .339 xwOBA and a .236 ISO to batters from the left side of the plate this season. At the very least, Bryan Reynolds (.374 xwOBA), Colin Moran (.327 xwOBA), and Josh Bell (.398 xwOBA) are worth a look in tournaments.
Stackability – ORANGE
Joe Musgrove throws a lot of strikes and has been fairly tough on batters from both sides of the plate this season. The Giants’ offense has been better in recent weeks, but this is still a below-average spot for their offense as a whole. Musgrove does give up a decent amount to power to lefties, which brings Mike Yastrzemski and Brandon Belt into play for large-field tournaments.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE