MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 12th - STL @ COL
St. Louis at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET
Mikolas has struck out 22 batters over his last three starts, but it feels more like noise than the signal. On the season, he has a 4.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 19%. In order to have success in Coors Field, you need to have a high k-rate and/or a high ground ball rate. Mikolas generates a decent number of ground balls, but I don’t see a reason to target him in this spot. The slate has plenty of options and these games in Coors aren’t going to be low scoring for much longer.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Mikolas in all formats.
Melville has looked decent in his four major league starts this season, but had mediocre numbers in the minors and he’s facing a competent offense in Coors Field. If you are thinking about targeting Melville in this spot, take a look at the line (STL -155) and total (13.0 runs).
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Melville in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
We have an interesting decision to make in the early slate. We can take a shot on one of these pitchers and load up on Coors Field or we can spend up on pitching and have limited exposure to this game as a whole. I expect most people to take the first approach, but I think I’ll end up spending on pitching. Tim Melville hasn’t been great at the Triple-A level this season and the Cardinals see a massive ballpark boost playing in Coors Field. Dexter Fowler (.341 xwOBA), Paul Goldschmidt (.347 xwOBA), Marcell Ozuna (.388 xwOBA), and Paul DeJong (.334 xwOBA) are all elite plays at their respective positions.
Stackability – BLUE
I typically look to avoid right-handed hitters against Miles Mikolas, but I generally throw out a pitcher’s splits when it comes to Coors Field. I will give a slight edge to those that bat from the left side, but anyone that cracks this Rockies’ lineup is worth a look in the early slate. Trevor Story (.336 xwOBA), Charlie Blackmon (.358 xwOBA), Nolan Arenado (.332 xwOBA), and Ryan McMahon (.341 xwOBA) all have good power numbers against right-handed pitching this season.
Stackability – GREEN