MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 12th - WAS @ MIN
Washington at Minnesota – 7:40 PM ET
Corbin has made 29 starts this season, posting a 3.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a walk rate of 8%. Given his matchup against the Twins, he will garner little to no ownership tonight. To be honest, the matchup is enough to scare me away from Corbin as well. Minnesota’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .384 with an average ISO of .285 against left-handed pitching. To make matters worse, he’s facing them on the road so he’ll have to face a designated hitter rather than the opposing pitcher.
Quick Breakdown: Corbin is an easy fade in all formats.
Gibson is one of those pitchers that I’m always fine getting to, but one that I never go out of my way to target. On the season, he owns a 4.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 7%. This game is basically set as a pick ‘em, but I have more faith in the Twins’ offense than I do in the Nationals’ offense. This is a mediocre matchup as a whole, as Washington’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .330 with an average k-rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: I’m not particularly high or low on Gibson tonight.
Batter Grind Down
Kyle Gibson is a good pitcher, but he’s not someone that we automatically cross off hitters against. On the season, he has allowed a .333 xwOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. The Nationals see a positive park shift playing in Minnesota and they get to use the DH in this series. I won’t be stacking the Nationals here, but Adam Eaton (.348 xwOBA), Juan Soto (.434 xwOBA), Asdrubal Cabrera (much better since joining Washington), and Matt Adams (.336 xwOBA) are all viable in tournaments.
Elite Plays – Juan Soto (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE
The Twins could score two runs tonight or they could score 12, I don’t see much happening in between. They have a difficult matchup on paper, but this is the most potent offense in baseball. Patrick Corbin sees a ballpark downgrade, he is pitching on the road, and he has to face a designated hitter. I am definitely siding with Minnesota in this matchup. Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, and C.J. Cron are all tremendous one-off targets for tournaments and if you are building a bunch of lineups, I don’t hate the full Twins’ stack.
Stackability – YELLOW