MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 23rd

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.



Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.




Detroit at Boston – 1:10 PM ET

Detroit Boston
Matt Boyd Chris Sale
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -175 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.267 0.251 38.8% 1.19 28.7% 34.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.232 0.213 19.1% 0.00 37.0% 50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.298 36.9% 1.33 22.8% 28.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.259 0.263 29.4% 0.99 35.6% 43.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Boyd
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $9,100 Salary: $18,000
Salary Rank: 3 of 28 Salary Rank: 4 of 28 Salary Rank: 4 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 31 4.31 4.39 22.4% 7.2% 29.0% 37.5% 19.3% 90.4 10.2%
2019 4 2.83 2.96 36.0% 7.0% 39.6% 35.7% 26.8% 90.6 16.1%

Due to last night’s postponed game, this will be the first of a double-header. For DFS, we will focus on the showdown slate. Check out the numbers for Boyd and Sale in their first four starts of the season:

Boyd – 2.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 36%.
Sale – 4.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17%.

We should always be looking to buy low and sell high, but it’s crazy how solid Boyd has looked this season. He’s certainly a pitcher to keep an eye on moving forward. In a full slate, I would have no interest in a road start against the Red Sox, but Boyd is firmly in play for the showdown slate. The two pitcher strategy works more often than not.

Quick Breakdown: I prefer Sale over Boyd, but he’s still an elite play in the showdown slate. If you are playing the all-day slate, Boyd can be avoided.

Chris Sale
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $17,100
Salary Rank: 7 of 28 Salary Rank: 7 of 28 Salary Rank: 6 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 27 2.27 2.11 38.4% 5.5% 44.2% 26.5% 27.4% 94.7 15.8%
2019 4 4.68 8.50 16.7% 6.0% 46.8% 33.3% 14.3% 92.5 11.1%

Sale would have been the biggest talking point in last night’s 10-game slate, but the game was rained out. I was hoping to be over-weight on the field, but now I’ll have to settle on him as my captain in the showdown slate. Perhaps I’m putting too much faith into Sale, but I was encouraged by his last start. His average fastball velocity was over 95 MPH and he was generating swings and misses at a high rate. Today will be his easiest matchup to date, as he takes on a high-strikeout Tigers’ offense at home.

Quick Breakdown: Lock and load Sale in your showdown lineups. He’s even viable in tournaments if you are playing the all-day slate.

Batter Grind Down

Given the recent form for Sale, the range of outcomes for the Tigers’ offense is quite wide. I have more interest in the Red Sox offense than I do in Detroit’s, but there are certainly some intriguing value plays for the showdown slate. Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera, Niko Goodrum, and Dustin Pederson all bat from the right side and all boast a .330+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching. Jeimer Candelario gets a rare start batting leadoff and is cheap across the industry.

Elite PlaysMiguel Cabrera

Secondary PlaysJeimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos, Niko Goodrum, Dustin Pederson

StackabilityORANGE

Matt Boyd was a pitcher that I try to avoid targeting hitters against, but we don’t have much of a choice in the single game slate. Since the start of last year, Boyd has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA over the last two seasons. Now this is the Red Sox, and they are playing at home in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball. Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Steve Pearce, and Michael Chavis all bat from the right side and all boast a .375+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching. For the all-day slate, we can avoid all hitters from this game.

Elite PlaysMookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Steve Pearce

Secondary PlaysMichael Chavis, Andrew Benintendi, Christian Vazquez

StackabilityYELLOW

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

    Interview after $100,000 Win

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