MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 13th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
Houston at Chicago White Sox – 4:40 PM ET
There are 16 games on the schedule today, including a double-header between the Astros and White Sox. The first game is featured in the all-day slate on FanDuel and as a showdown slate on DraftKings. The second game was never included in the main slate on FanDuel and has since been taken off of the main slate on DraftKings. In 24 starts this season, Greinke owns a 4.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 4%. If you are a right-hander that throw strikes against the White Sox, good things tend to happen. Their projected lineup for today’s game has an average xwOBA of .282 with an average k-rate of 29% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Greinke is an elite play in showdown on DraftKings and a viable tournament option in the all-day slate on FanDuel.
Cease has a lot of talent and that’s evident in his track record at the minor league level. His numbers at the majors haven’t been great thus far — 4.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 10%. I’m buying his stock for the long term, but have been avoiding him for DFS purposes. He’s going to have growing pains at the major league level and he’ll have his hands full today against the Astros. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .353 with an average strikeout rate of 18% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: While the two-pitcher approach is usually viable in showdown, I see more risk than upside for Cease. He’s an easy fade for the all-day slate on FanDuel.
Batter Grind Down
This isn’t a game that we should go out of our way to target in the all-day slate on FanDuel. We don’t really need to lock up a roster spot unless you feel really confident in a specific batter. For the showdown slate, the Astros are obviously the preferred offense to target. It’s always tough to fit an expensive pitcher with expensive bats in showdown, which brings closer Roberto Osuna into play at minimum salary ($3,000). Dylan Cease has plenty of talent, but he has struggled with the long ball in his first six major league starts. George Springer (.395 xwOBA), jose Altuve (red-hot at the plate), Michael Brantley (.380 xwOBA), Alex Bregman (.374 xwOBA), and Yordan Alvarez (.425 xwOBA) are all strong options for showdown.
Stackability – YELLOW
The White Sox are an easy offense to cross off our list of potential targets on FanDuel. For showdown on DraftKings, we have to roster at least one player from Chicago. If you aren’t planning on using Dylan Cease, then you’ll have to roster a batter from the White Sox. In terms of splits, Zack Greinke is equally as tough on lefties as he is on righties. Basically, the goal here is to find the cheapest viable hitter to help us afford some of the more expensive Astros’ bats. Based on the projected lineup, that looks to be Jon Jay ($4,800) or Welington Castillo ($5,200).
Elite Plays (Showdown) – None
Stackability – RED