MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 13th - BAL @ NYY
Baltimore at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET
Means has made 18 starts this season, posting a 4.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. While he’s good at limiting power, he’s not nearly as talented as his ERA (3.36) wants you to believe. Despite missing half of their lineup, the Yankees have been crushing at the plate recently. Over the last 14 days, they are first in home runs (37) and second in wRC+ (145). Means is a massive underdog pitching on the road in a game that features a total of 10.5 runs.
Quick Breakdown: In case you didn’t get the hints above, I will be avoiding Means in all formats.
We have lost two aces in the DraftKings player pool since this morning. Clayton Kershaw was pushed back a day and Gerrit Cole was taken off the slate. This makes German a much more appealing option. In 19 starts this season, he owns a 3.93 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 6%. He gives up a decent amount of hard contact and home runs, but that’s less of a concern in a matchup against the Orioles. Their projected lineup for tonight’s game has an average xwOBA of only .315 with an average k-rate of 23% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: German is priced at a premium, but offers a high floor at low ownership. He’s on my radar for tournaments.
Batter Grind Down
The Orioles are an offense that I rarely target in big slates. They have to have a top five matchup in order to deserve consideration in DFS. While they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, they have a difficult matchup against Domingo German. He owns a 26% strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA this season. If fading the Orioles in a 14-game slate burns me, so be it. That’s a risk I’m willing to live with.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
I’m interested to see what the Yankees’ ownership will look like tonight. While they are usually popular, they have felt under-owned over the last couple of weeks. As noted above, they have been tearing the cover off the ball recently. The Orioles have the worst bullpen in baseball and it should be relatively tired after yesterday’s double-header. The key for New York is to jump on John Means early. He has been tough on batters from both sides of the plate, but he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher and he’s facing the Yankees in New York. I will continue to go right back to the well and load up on the Yankees in tournaments. They are a top two stack for me in this slate.
Stackability – BLUE