MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 13th - MIN @ MIL
Minnesota at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM ET
Perez isn’t a pitcher that I like to target for DFS or a pitcher that I like to target hitters against. In 20 starts this season, he owns a 4.79 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a walk rate of 9%. Those numbers aren’t all that appealing, yet he’s managed to hold both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA this season. The Brewers strike out at a high rate against southpaws, but they have plenty of power and Perez is facing them on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Perez in all formats.
Anderson has a tough matchup on paper. The Twins lead the majors in ISO and in home runs this season. However, they lose the DH in this series (which will be Nelson Cruz) and most of their lineup is left-handed. On the season, Anderson has held lefties to a .253 xwOBA with a 22% strikeout rate. He has massive reverse-splits, which is a significant boost in this matchup. It doesn’t feel great targeting Anderson in a difficult matchup in a 14-game slate, but I prefer him over Thomas Pannone. He’ll likely garner less than half of the ownership.
Quick Breakdown: When it comes to cheap SP2 options, I’ll rank them Fried, May, Anderson, and then Pannone.
Batter Grind Down
As noted above, Chase Anderson is a reverse splits pitcher. In 2018, he allowed a .367 xwOBA and a .239 ISO to righties. In 2019, he has allowed a .361 xwOBA and a .217 ISO to righties. Unfortunately, the Twins only have one right-handed hitter in their projected lineup. Miguel Sano (.332 xwOBA) is certainly a viable one-off target here. The Twins have plenty of left-handed power, but Anderson has held lefties to a .253 xwOBA last season.
Elite Plays – Miguel Sano (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Miguel Sano (Cash)
Stackability – ORANGE
As mentioned above, I don’t like targeting hitters against Martin Perez. While he doesn’t have a high strikeout rate, he induces a lot of ground balls and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under a 37% hard contact rate. For a game that features a total of 10.0 runs, I have surprisingly very little interest in the two offenses. Lorenzo Cain (.348 xwOBA), Yasmani Grandal (.380 xwOBA), and Ryan Braun (.350 xwOBA) all bat from the right side and all have good numbers against southpaws, but they are far from priority plays tonight.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE