MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 13th - NYM @ ATL

NY Mets at Atlanta – 7:20 PM ET

Wheeler is incredibly consistent and has really had a nice season overall. In 22 starts, he owns a 3.93 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 6%. The issue tonight is that he’s priced up across the industry and that he draws one of the worst matchups of the slate. The Braves’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .322 with an average k-rate of 24% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Wheeler is incredibly talented, but I’ll wait for a better matchup.

Fried rates out as one of the best point-per-dollar options of the slate. As I mentioned earlier, I’m not in love with a chalky Thomas Pannone as my SP2. I would rather find the cap space to get up to Fried or to Dustin May. In 22 starts this season, Fried has a 3.93 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 7%. He induces a lot of ground balls, which allows him to limit power. If you look at his expected numbers (xwOBA, xISO, etc.), he’s actually been a little unlucky against righties this season. He draws a favorable matchup against the Mets, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .305 with an average k-rate of 24% against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Fried is right there with Dustin May as my favorite SP2 of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Even though this game features a total of 9.5 runs, I have very little interest in these two offenses. Max Fried has above-average strikeout and ground ball rates and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a 38% hard contact rate this season. A case can always be made to play Pete Alonso (.421 xwOBA) and J.D. Davis (.423 xwOBA) against southpaws, but they are deep GPP fliers at best in this slate.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysPete Alonso (GPP), J.D. Davis (GPP)


The Braves are in the same boat as the Red Sox and Indians. They have a very potent offense, but they draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. Zack Wheeler has a high strikeout rate (26%), a decent ground ball rate (36%), and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season. Ronald Acuna (.387 xwOBA), Freddie Freeman (.415 xwOBA), and Josh Donaldson (.381 xwOBA) all hit right-handed pitching well, but they are deep tournament fliers at best in a slate this size.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysRonald Acuna (GPP), Freddie Freeman (GPP), Josh Donaldson (GPP)


About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.


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