MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 13th - TEX @ TOR
Texas at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET
Lynn continues to crush and I continue to avoid him because he never seems to have a good matchup. In 24 starts this season, he owns a 3.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 6%. He deserves all the credit for putting together such a great season, but my Lynn fade will continue this evening. He’s pitching on the road against the Blue Jays, whose projected lineup has an average ISO of .227 against right-handed pitching.
I was all about the cheap pitching options in last night’s slate. I wanted to pay up for bats from the Yankees, Diamondbacks, and Rockies. The strategy worked well, so I expect everyone to go right back to it tonight on multi-pitcher sites. Personally, I will be under-weight on Coors Field and have more interest in paying up for pitching in this slate. When you combine that with the fact that Pannone is going to be 20% owned, he becomes an easy fade in tournaments. I certainly see the appeal — he’s a southpaw facing the Rangers. However, he’s also a below-average pitcher that’s an underdog in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs.
Quick Breakdown: I will let others chase the cheap pitcher production tonight. I will be avoiding Pannone in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
The Rangers have been dreadful against southpaws this season, but they are facing a subpar lefty in a hitter-friendly ballpark. More importantly, they are facing a volatile pitcher that is going to be highly owned in tournaments. In these situations, the opposing offense is always worth a look as a leverage stack for tournaments. On the season, Thomas Pannone has allowed a .190+ ISO to batters from both sides of the plate. I won’t be targeting any of the Rangers’ batters individually, but a full stack is intriguing in large-field tournaments.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – YELLOW
The Blue Jays’ stack went off last night against Ariel Jurado. This has been one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last few weeks and they are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark. While there are a lot of positives for Toronto, there is one big negative — a matchup against Lance Lynn. In addition to a 28% strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA and under a .145 ISO this season. Bo Bichette (.361 xwOBA) and Justin Smoak (.407 xwOBA) rate out as decent plays in my model, but I will be avoiding the Blue Jays in all formats.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE