MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 23rd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
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The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET
Last night was a great slate for yours truly, so we’ll look to keep it going with 15 games on the schedule this evening. Hudson is a low-strikeout pitcher that is facing a low-strikeout Pirates’ offense. For him to deserve consideration, he needs to be facing a right-handed heavy opponent and we typically need a slate that is starved for pitching options. He doesn’t have either of those tonight, which makes him one of the easiest fades on the board.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Hudson in all formats.
Archer has been very hit or miss this season. Honestly, if you didn’t roster Archer a single time, you would save yourself some serious heartburn. With that said, there are very few pitchers in his price range that has the type of ceiling that Archer possesses. He has a 27% strikeout rate on the season and his numbers are all trending in the right direction over the last few weeks. He should have the platoon advantage against a watered down Cardinals’ lineup that owns an average xwOBA of .271 with an average k-rate of 28% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Chalky Archer rarely turns out well, but he rates out as the best point-per-dollar pitcher in my MLB model.
Batter Grind Down
Chris Archer has a high strikeout rate, but he’s still a hittable pitcher when you look at his splits. He has allowed a .350+ xwOBA and a .170+ ISO to both left and right-handed hitters this season. The problem with the Cardinals is that they are one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and that they are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Tommy Edman (.319 xwOBA) and Dexter Fowler (.329 xwOBA) are fine, but they are far from core plays in tonight’s large slate.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
Dakota Hudson is one of the easiest matchups to break down tonight. On the season, he has held righties to a .296 xwOBA with a massive 68% ground ball rate. We can safely cross off any and all righties from the Pirates. Hudson has certainly struggled against lefties, allowing a .393 xwOBA and a .192 ISO. Ideally, we want to target fly-ball hitters that are left-handed. The three hitters that meet the criteria for Pittsburgh are Adam Frazier (.336 xwOBA), Josh Bell (.396 xwOBA), and Colin Moran (.335 xwOBA).
Elite Plays – Josh Bell (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE