MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 18th

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

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Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.




Detroit at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

As usual, we have 15 games to break down on Tuesday. We start with two intriguing tournament plays on the mound in Pittsburgh. Norris doesn’t have a ton of strikeout upside, but he sees a positive park shift and he gets to face the opposing pitcher in the lineup with this being a National League ballpark. The projected lineup for the Pirates has an average xwOBA of .313 with a strikeout rate of 24% against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Norris isn’t on my radar for my main lineup, but he’s viable as an SP2 in large-field tournaments.

Keller is only making his third career major league start, so his range of outcomes is still quite wide. However, a home matchup against the Tigers is quite possibly the best spot for any pitcher on the slate. Keller is the team’s number two prospect and he was sharp at the Triple-A level before being called up. In 11 starts, he posted a 3.63 FIP with a strikeout rate of 30%. Walks are the big issue thus far, but the Tigers aren’t exactly the most patient offense.

Quick Breakdown: I love Keller’s upside and his price point. He’s not a safe play, but he’s one of the top SP2 options of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

When we have a young pitcher on the mound, anything can happen. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tigers jump on Mitch Keller early, I’m siding with the rookie tonight. Detroit sees a negative park shift, they don’t get to use the DH in this series, and they have one of the lowest implied run totals on the board.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysChristin Stewart

StackabilityORANGE

The Pirates are the preferred offense to target in this game, but they don’t stack up to some of the other offenses on this slate. Rather than employing a full stack, we should try to capture their upside with one-offs and mini stacks. Daniel Norris has a low strikeout rate and has allowed a .345+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. The Pirates don’t have a ton of power against southpaws, but Kevin Newman, Bryan Reynolds, and Josh Bell are viable in tournaments.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysKevin Newman (GPP), Bryan Reynolds (GPP), Josh Bell (GPP)

StackabilityORANGE

Noto’s MLB Bets

It’s been rough sledding so far for the bets. I might have to change up my strategy if things don’t turn around soon.

Whether you are actually betting the games or just want to test your sports betting skills, download the SharpSide app or visit the SharpSide desktop site.

Season Record: 49-53 (-9 units)

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

    Interview after $100,000 Win

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