MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 10th - ARI @ NYM
Arizona at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET
The 28.8% strikeout rate for Zac Gallen on the season is actually the second-highest mark on the night behind only Walker Buehler. The rookie’s success has carried over to his time with the Diamondbacks, though his 4.30 SIERA is calling for some regression for his 2.50 ERA. Gallen is in a tough spot tonight against a Mets lineup with a collective 19.6% strikeout rate against righties. Gallen’s price tag on DraftKings was also yanked up north of $11,000 on this slate. He’s a more reasonable value on FanDuel and Yahoo. Gallen putting up a good start tonight wouldn’t be a surprise, so he’s viable in GPPs on FD and Y!. I don’t see much reason to pay that kind of price for him on DraftKings tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Gallen is a viable tournament option on FanDuel and Yahoo, but not a priority against the Mets.
Zack Wheeler has a 22.9% strikeout rate, and his 4.32 SIERA is in lockstep with his 4.33 ERA. Arizona’s projected lineup has a strikeout rate just under 23% against righties, and Jacob deGrom mowed 11 of them down just last night. As is the case with Gallen, Wheeler’s price point is more palatable on FanDuel and Yahoo than it is on DraftKings ($10,000). He hasn’t been in great form of late, but I’d be more willing to take a shot on Wheeler at his price point around the industry than Gallen at his. Wheeler is one of the better pitching options on the board.
Quick Breakdown: Wheeler is a solid option in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
I have a little interest in Wheeler tonight, but the Diamondbacks can throw 5 left-handed hitters his way. Wheeler’s platoon splits are fairly pronounced (.322 wOBA vs. LHB), so Arizona lefties aren’t the worst hedge stack. Eduardo Escobar is a bit too cheap given his production around the industry. Ketel Marte isn’t, but he’s a fine tournament play that should garner little ownership. Jake Lamb, Josh Rojas, Jarrod Dyson and Alex Avila are viable stacking options if they get into the lineup. I’m not overly into Arizona with their 3.78 implied run total, but a mini-stack is fine in large-field tourneys.
Stackability – ORANGE
Gallen has held hitters of either handedness to a sub-.290 wOBA, and the Mets’ 4.22 implied total is among the lowest on the night. This doesn’t look like the game to be chasing bats. Hunting for homers with Pete Alonso or Michael Conforto makes sense, while Jeff McNeil is a bit discounted. The Mets have enough power in the lineup to be appealing at what should be low ownership, but I’d rather target other spots for offense tonight.
Stackability – ORANGE