MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 10th - CIN @ SEA
Cincinnati at Seattle – 10:10 PM ET
Trevor Bauer has been one of the more unpredictable commodities in DFS this season. The right-hander has a 27.5% strikeout rate, but his walk rate is also north of 9% and he’s been getting blasted by left-handed hitters. Bauer has allowed a .355 wOBA with 19 homers to lefties on the year, and the Mariners can jam the lineup with at least 6 LHBs tonight. On the bright side, most of those lefties aren’t any good, and Seattle’s projected lineup has a collective 23.4% K-rate against righties. Bauer’s price tag has also come down around the industry thanks to a few bad performances. It feels pretty scary, but I’ll be loading up on Bauer at this price point against a weak lineup tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Bauer is my favorite pitching option on the board, which is not at all terrifying.
Justus Sheffield has a strikeout rate just under 23% through his first 4 major league outings. He enjoyed his best game by far last time out in Chicago, and tonight he’ll face what has become a pretty ugly Reds lineup. Sheffield is a prospect with some pedigree, but he hardly stands out on a slate of this size. $27 is a fine price tag over on Yahoo, but I’ll otherwise have very little interest in him tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Sheffield isn’t the worst play on Yahoo, but he’s an easy fade on DK and FD.
Batter Grind Down
The sample size on Justus Sheffield is extremely limited, and the Reds’ 4.70 implied run total is middle-of-the-pack tonight. I’m always happy to take a shot on the power bats of Eugenio Suarez or Aristides Aquino with the platoon advantage, but with so many offenses grading out well it’s hard to love a Cincinnati stack. Curt Casali is a cheap catcher with a little of power upside worth a look, as well.
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
As mentioned, Bauer has really struggled against LHBs so far this season. Kyle Seager, Daniel Vogelbach and Omar Narvaez have solid power from the left side, but most of the other lefties in the lineup are slap hitters like Dee Gordon and Mallex Smith. Hedging against what may be a popular Bauer has upside considering how often he’s scuffled, but I’d rather target some of the actual good offenses on this slate. As a result, Seattle is a source of one-offs without much else. I’d rather play Bauer than stack up the Mariners.
Elite Plays – Kyle Seager
Stackability – ORANGE