MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 10th - KCR @ CHW
Kansas City at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM ET
Jakob Junis gets a nice matchup with the White Sox. The right-hander has a 21.3% K-rate on the year, and his 4.58 SIERA is slightly better than his 4.94 ERA. He has always struggled with power, though, and that’s been the case again this year. Junis has conceded 28 homers across 29 starts. The White Sox aren’t the most imposing lineup, and they’ve whiffed at a 25% clip against RHPs on the season. The bottom of this lineup is particularly awful right now. Junis is certainly capable of putting up a solid outing here, but that midrange price tier is a bit of an awkward fit for this slate. You can fire up Junis if you want to fade that upper tier entirely, as any build with a pitcher in his price range should help provide a fairly unique roster build tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Junis is one of the more appealing midrange plays, but he’s far from a must.
Ivan Nova has a 4.69 ERA and a 5.23 SIERA on the season, and his 13.7% strikeout rate is the second-lowest on the slate ahead of only Chi Chi Gonzalez. In spite of it all, Nova is a viable punt tonight. The right-hander gets a favorable matchup against a Royals team whose 5-9 in the order has almost zero power. The top-4 hitters are good, but if Nova can skate past them he should be able to pay off his super cheap $4,800 DK price tag. Nova has tailed off of late following a lucky hot streak a few weeks ago, but I’m willing to take a stab at him now that he’s only a few hundred bucks over the minimum on DK. He’s much more expensive on FanDuel and Yahoo, so he’s an easy fade on both sites. Finding the extra cash to get guys like Chase Anderson or Elieser Hernandez is probably the “safer” path, but Nova’s a fine punt try tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Nova is a viable option as a punt on DraftKings.
Batter Grind Down
Ivan Nova used to have a wide platoon split, but this season he’s essentially been equally hittable for hitters of either handedness. Lefties are still the preferred targets considering Nova’s ground ball rate is a bit higher against righties. Adalberto Mondesi is the best lefty in this lineup, but he won’t come cheap on most sites. Alex Gordon and Ryan O’Hearn are passable cheaper options. I’m perfectly happy to chase the power upside of Hunter Dozier or Jorge Soler in this spot, while Meibrys Viloria, Cheslor Cuthbert and Ryan McBroom (fake name) can help you save money. The Royals are a passable source of value if you need it.
Stackability – YELLOW
Jakob Junis will allow homers to hitters from either side of the plate, but lefties have had slightly more success against him overall. LHBs have a .346 wOBA against the right-hander. Yoan Moncada looks like easily the top option on the Chicago side, while Daniel Palka has shown some power potential from the left side in the past. (Relevant side note: Daniel Palka is 1-for-54 in the majors this season.) Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez bring the pop from the right side, but they’re secondary plays at best on a slate like this.
Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada
Stackability – YELLOW