MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 10th - LAD @ BAL
LA Dodgers at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
The main slate kicks off with what should be a hilarious mismatch between the Dodgers and Orioles. Walker Buehler is the most expensive pitcher by a wide margin on DraftKings and FanDuel, but he’s cheaper than Ryan Yarbrough on Yahoo. Buehler’s 29.5% strikeout rate tops the slate, and his 3.40 SIERA validates his 3.28 ERA. He’s had some rough outings on occasion, and he does get a park downgrade tonight going into Baltimore. The Orioles’ projected lineup isn’t laden with power, but they also have just a 20.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Buehler is one of the top options on the slate by default, but at his price point I certainly don’t think he’s an absolute must-play in any format.
Quick Breakdown: Buehler is in a good spot, but he’s not a must-play at his elevated price point.
Ty Blach has an ERA over 10.00 this season with a SIERA of 6.30. His 13.9% strikeout rate is among the lowest on the slate, but he has typically done a decent job of limiting power. Pitching in San Francisco for most of his career helps that, of course. The Dodgers’ lineup doesn’t profile quite as well against left-handed pitching, but it’s still a low-strikeout group (20.4% vs. LHP) and they will get to add a DH. Blach is cheap, but the lack of strikeouts and the difficult matchup make him a pretty easy fade, even at his price point.
Quick Breakdown: Blach is an easy fade.
Batter Grind Down
The Orioles’ lefty has allowed a .344 career wOBA to right-handed hitters, and the Dodgers should be pretty heavy on righties tonight. He has historically been decent about generating ground balls, but the Dodgers still have an implied run total north of 6 tonight. The righties stand out, which means A.J. Pollock, Justin Turner, Will Smith, Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, David Freese and Jedd Gyorko. Freese is wildly priced above $5,000 on DraftKings, so given his pinch-hit risk he feels like a pretty risky spend. This is an expensive stack at the top, but guys like Freese (on other sites), Hernandez, Taylor and Gyorko help balance it out. I don’t mind the lefties Cody Bellinger or Corey Seager in tournaments, especially if their ownership will be down in the lefty-lefty spot. The Orioles’ bullpen behind Blach is obviously horrendous.
Stackability – GREEN
Buehler was roughed up by the Rockies last time out, but he’s still generally not a pitcher we want to pick on. He’s held lefties and righties to a sub-.280 wOBA this season without a ton of power. The Orioles’ 3.74 implied run total is also the second-lowest on the day. You can take a stab at the quality bats like Trey Mancini or Anthony Santander, but with 28 offenses on the slate I don’t see much need to get to Baltimore bats.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – RED