MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 10th - MIL @ MIA
Milwaukee at Miami – 7:10 PM ET
Chase Anderson has been a popular source of value this season, and that’ll be the case tonight as he becomes the latest member of the “Pitching in Miami Against the Marlins Hall of Fame.” Anderson has a 21.3% strikeout rate with a walk rate just over 8% on the year. His reverse splits aren’t ideal for a matchup with the righty-heavy Marlins, but this lineup still has a painfully low .130 ISO with a K-rate of 23% against right-handed pitching. Anderson may be the most highly-owned pitcher on the slate, but it’s hard to argue against it.
Quick Breakdown: Anderson is an excellent value option against Miami.
Elieser Hernandez has a K-rate of 22.5% through 19 appearances with the Marlins on the year. He has unsurprisingly been more effective at home, and tonight he draws a Brewers lineup with a collective 26.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Hernandez potentially facing 6 lefties is pretty dicey, but I tend to buy into the plus strikeout stuff he’s shown going back to the minor league level earlier this season (34.3% at Triple-A). Hernandez’ price tag is comparable to Anderson’s around the industry, so with the masses presumably flocking to Anderson, I’m more than willing to shift some of my ownership to Hernandez in a decent spot on paper.
Quick Breakdown: Hernandez is viable in all formats, especially in tournaments as a pivot to Anderson.
Batter Grind Down
I like Elieser Hernandez tonight, but left-handed hitters have given him issues. The right-hander has allowed a .404 wOBA to lefties, and the Brewers are heavy on LHBs. Christian Yelich is the obvious top play, while Trent Grisham figures to be a chalky value option again tonight. Eric Thames and Yasmani Grandal have plenty of pop from the left side, while Travis Shaw can still be had at a dirt-cheap price point. Cory Spangenberg is another lefty, if you’re feeling frisky. You can always try Ryan Braun or Lorenzo Cain from the right side, but sticking with Milwaukee lefties looks like a viable enough path on this slate.
Stackability – YELLOW
Anderson’s struggles have always been more pronounced against RHBs, and 2019 has been no exception in that regard. Righties have a .391 wOBA with 15 homers against him. The Marlins can give you some leverage against what should be a popular pitcher, but the upside is obviously limited. Jon Berti, Garrett Cooper, Starlin Castro and Jorge Alfaro are probably the main attractions, but given Miami’s slate-low 3.73 total, there is plenty of merit to just fading these guys completely.
Elite Plays – Jon Berti
Stackability – ORANGE