MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 10th - PIT @ SFG
Pittsburgh at San Francisco – 9:45 PM ET
Mitch Keller left his last start in the second inning after taking a liner off the wrist, but he’s apparently good to go tonight. The rookie has a 27.9% K-rate through his first 8 major league outings alongside a 7.6% walk rate. His 3.96 SIERA also tells a different story than his bloated 8.18 ERA, and he gets to pitch to a weak Giants lineup in San Francisco tonight. The Giants aren’t great for Ks (21.3%), but Keller is good enough to get enough on his own, plus it’s an elite spot for run prevention. Keller is priced in the upper midrange on DraftKings, while he’s way too cheap on both FanDuel and Yahoo. He’s a nice GPP play on DraftKings, but I think you can look his way in all formats on the other two sites.
Quick Breakdown: Keller is one of the most appealing pitchers on the slate, especially in GPPs.
Johnny Cueto? Now that’s a name we’ve not heard in a long time. The right-hander has made 6 rehab starts, and he threw 75 pitches in his most recent outing in the minors. He had a strikeout rate under 18% a season ago, and he was a guy that was better at limiting runs than generating many swings-and-misses the last time we saw him. Maybe Cueto can rediscover the fountain of youth now that he’s back, but I see no reason to target him in a low-strikeout matchup with the Pirates in his first start back.
Quick Breakdown: Cueto is an easy fade.
Batter Grind Down
Johnny Cueto was pretty neutral from a splits perspective last season, but he was far more effective in terms of generating grounders against right-handed hitters. The Pirates and their 4.05 implied run total aren’t overly appealing tonight, but a slightly underpriced Josh Bell looks decent in this matchup. You can look to guys like Bryan Reynolds or Colin Moran on the late slate, but on a 14-game main slate you can probably get away with fading the Pirates tonight.
Elite Plays – Josh Bell
Stackability – ORANGE
I have plenty of interest in Mitch Keller tonight, so I’m not bullish on the Giants’ bats. Keller has allowed a wOBA of .400 or better to hitters of either handedness, but he’s been the victim of bad luck. Brandon Belt and Mike Yastrzemski are passable late slate options, but their 4.45 total is also one of the lowest on the board.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE