MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 17th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
LA Angels at NY Yankees – 6:35 PM ET
The Yankees are projected to score 6.39 runs tonight, which really tells you all you need to know about this spot for Jose Suarez. The rookie lefty has a strikeout rate of just 18.5% on the year with a walk rate pushing 9%, and right-handed power bats have given him problems. Even with a few guys currently on the IL, the Yankees still have plenty of right-handed power to throw his way. He’s certainly someone you wouldn’t want to be playing on a normal slate, but if you’re playing the one-gamer you can always try to grab the pitching points. Suarez definitely doesn’t project all that well, though.
Quick Breakdown: This is a pretty brutal spot for Suarez.
This will be the season debut for Luis Severino. The right-hander threw 65 pitches in his most recent rehab outing, so he’s unlikely to pitch much further than that tonight. The Yankees say he’ll be capped around 75. He gets a decent matchup with an Angels lineup sans Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton, but it’s hard to be overly confident given the expected limitations. Severino had a K-rate north of 28% last season, so he’s definitely capable of paying off in this matchup. He’s definitely has the upside edge over Suarez given their respective matchups, so if I had to choose one I’d take the limited Severino.
Quick Breakdown: He’s going to have a short leash, but Severino still has some upside against a watered-down version of the Angels.
Batter Grind Down
As mentioned, the Angels will be without arguably their three best hitters for the duration of the season. Severino projects to be well above-average in terms of limiting damage against righties, but left-handed bats can give him some trouble. Kole Calhoun and Brian Goodwin are really the only left-handed bats of note here, while Jared Walsh has a bit of power from the left side, too. Albert Pujols is probably this team’s best right-handed bat these days, which is a pretty good indicator of how bad this team is right now. Luis Rengifo and Anthony Bemboom are potential sources of salary relief, but the Halos’ 3.11 implied run total is this low for a reason.
Elite Plays – Kole Calhoun
Stackability – ORANGE / RED
Suarez has done a fine job against his fellow lefties (.290 wOBA allowed), but righties boast a .429 mark with 17 homers at his expense on the year. Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, D.J. LeMahieu, Gio Urshela and Clint Frazier all have ISOs over .200 against left-handed pitching this season. So does Didi Gregorius, so he’s a potential differentiator for your tournament lineups in the lefty-lefty matchup. Kyle Higashioka has a little bit of power from the catcher spot if he manages to crack the lineup, too. Obviously, a Yankee stack looks good against a vulnerable left-hander.
Stackability – GREEN