MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 24th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
Miami at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET
|Sandy Alcantara||Jefry Rodriguez|
|Vegas Moneyline||Vegas Over/Under|
|SP vs. Left (2016-17)||0.296||0.280||29.2%||0.29||14.2%||61.5%||SP vs. Left (2016-17)||0.373||0.399||36.4%||1.71||9.8%||41.4%|
|SP vs. Right (2016-17)||0.335||0.313||39.7%||0.69||26.8%||30.2%||SP vs. Right (2016-17)||0.292||0.286||27.1%||1.15||22.7%||43.2%|
Pitcher Grind Down
|Salary Rank:||24 of 29||Salary Rank:||15 of 29||Salary Rank:||13 of 29|
We have seven early games on the schedule today, so we have two solid slates for DFS. Alcantara induces ground balls and soft contact, but he doesn’t have the strikeout upside that we are looking for in a starting pitcher. His reverse splits could actually bode well in a matchup against the left-handed heavy Indians offense, but there are better options for both cash games and tournaments.
Quick Breakdown: Here is what I’m not looking for: A low-strikeout pitcher who is a large underdog on the road.
|Salary Rank:||25 of 29||Salary Rank:||25 of 29||Salary Rank:||23 of 29|
Rodriguez has a low ERA through one start, but it is accompanied by a 4.63 SIERA and a 14% strikeout rate. He didn’t have great control last season, and he’s not great at inducing ground balls. There aren’t a lot of positives when you look at his pitching profile. He does draw an exploitable matchup against the Marlins, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .295 with a strikeout rate of 24%.
Quick Breakdown: I like the matchup and the fact that he’s pitching at home. If you are hoping to stack Coors Field, Rodriguez should be on your radar.
Batter Grind Down
The Marlins don’t have the most talented offense, but they see a ballpark boost playing in Cleveland, they get to utilize the DH in this series, and they draw an exploitable matchup against Jefry Rodriguez. In nine starts over two seasons, Rodriguez has allowed a .399 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Curtis Granderson (.336 xwOBA) and Neil Walker (.358 xwOBA) are two of the better value plays in the early slate.
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
The Indians are facing a pitcher with a high SIERA and a high walk rate, but the matchup doesn’t look nearly as enticing when you look at the splits. Since the start of last season, Sandy Alcantara has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA. In fact, he has a 62% ground ball rate against lefties. I plan to be under-weight on the Indians’ offense, but Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez both have elite fly-ball rates against right-handed pitching.